Whats your total win rate?

Unordinary-1639 · May 5, 2018, 11:12pm

but that would mean all the games if they are of equal players to come down to a draw more often, or at least overtime. Instead of the overwhelming % of 1 sided stomps.

stevebullis1-1573 · May 5, 2018, 11:12pm

I’m just under the 50% mark myself. I will also note this season so far, even compared to last season, I have a considerably lowest winrate. Season 10 has felt so unbalanced in it’s matchmaking, it’s nice to actually see a bit of evidence to my frustrations.

thedrizzle-1753 · May 5, 2018, 11:21pm

Omg another person that doesn’t understand statistics claiming FORCED WINRATE???

Roohee-2562 · May 5, 2018, 11:23pm

My total winrate is the amount of reports i filed which is 10^(10^100), the amount of actioning confirmations I get is the same, but the number actual people who got actioned is: ZERO. So my winrate is 0%.

Unordinary-1639 · May 5, 2018, 11:28pm

so whats your overall record

thedrizzle-1753 · May 5, 2018, 11:29pm

Please review this. It’s a detail explanation of how the system works. he provides links from developers and what not as well.

https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/overwatch/t/how-competitive-skill-rating-works-season-9/14009?u=thedrizzle-1753

this is a very detailed explanation!

Pay particular attention to sub-section “matchmaking”

How Competitive Skill Rating Works (Season 9)

If the match-maker says most games are fair, then why are there so many stomps?

There are many reasons:

Overwatch, as a game, has a tendency to snowball. The winner of the first fight has an ultimate advantage that has a tendency to last the round. Losing teams tend to tilt and start playing poorly, which can continue in the same round and carry into the next round.

Random variables are random. Maybe a cat walked on a keyboard or someone fat fingered an ult (7). Maybe someone who has 99% up-time for their internet had their 1% failure that day. Maybe one team has all dps mains, and the other team is well balanced. MMR and predicted win percentage only has validity over many matches, not each individual match.

Not every player tries hard every match. Sometimes this is subtle, like playing with a beer or two too many. Sometimes it is less subtle, like practicing a hero a player is not good at, regardless of team comp or map.

Some players actively break the system, by either hard throwing, that is intentionally losing (as opposed to soft throwing as in item 3), playing on someone else’s account to boost it, or other similar actions. These actions are bannable and should be reported when seen. Blizzard has promised to take stronger actions against this sort of thing (17). However, soft throwers and hard throwers can be difficult to distinguish, and Blizzard has to error on the side of caution to avoid banning the wrong people, so it will always be a problem. The in-game report UI, as well as a key blue post (36), give guidelines on what behavior is or is not bannable.

New accounts in general have less data and will have a less accurate MMR. There is no required minimum number of games to play, so new accounts can stay “new” for a very long time.

MMR itself is only approximate. See the section on “How Accurate is SR”, below and realize that MMR generally will have the same issues as SR, with respect to accuracy, except it is harder to measure what is going on with MMR.

Okay, stomps are going to happen, but why are there so many win/loss streaks and large SR/MMR movements? Shouldn’t a player’s SR/MMR be fairly stable once he gets to the proper rank?

Win probability changes slowly with rank because there are so many random factors in each individual match. Unfortunately, it follows from this that frequent and long streaks will occur, and a player’s rank will oscillate widely. Essentially, a player will tend to bounce between the range of where he is nearly guaranteed to win and where he is nearly guaranteed to lose. The range varies from player to player, but +/- 250 SR/MMR is common and +/- 500 is possible. This problem can be analyzed in depth, mathematically (34).

Unordinary-1639 · May 5, 2018, 11:44pm

I didnt ask for an unrelated essay on an unrelated subject.

I asked what is your overall record for every season.

CoGLucifer-1870 · May 5, 2018, 11:48pm

The fact that you think it’s unrelated proves that you don’t actually understand the topic

thedrizzle-1753 · May 5, 2018, 11:50pm

You and others rambling about “Forced 50% winrate” so this is very relevant.

Anyways you showed your true colors. You only want post that agree with you

Unordinary-1639 · May 5, 2018, 11:51pm

so whats your record? why do you keep dancing around the subject?

thedrizzle-1753 · May 6, 2018, 12:22am

I’m not dancing around the subject lmao. I’m debunking your conspiracy theory…
there is no forced win rate, there IS matchmaking trying match teams so they are as close to 50% probability of winning. These are totally separate thing.

*Note i’m excluding my season 1 and season 3. I let friends play my account when they wanted to try out overwatch and it was low bronze lmao. this was before I was into the game(was hooked on ff14)

Season 7: 285,288,16
Season 8: 216,189,12
Season 9: 113,113,12
Season 10: 20,11,0

Total: 634,601,40 46.69% win rate

A side note I climbed every season. the system is not rigged unless you are the one doing.

Season 7: 1450-1693
Season 8: 1600-2500
Season 9: 2500-2800
Season 10: 2700-until(i hope to hit diamond this season. pretty much on track too)

My point here is if the system is rigged I wouldn’t climb. While over a large sample size the win rate is close to 50% this is not representative of the periods when you climb

Statistics behind the system: Math Stuff! really well put together

https://us.battle.net/forums/en/overwatch/topic/20759379305#post-1

Unordinary-1639 · May 6, 2018, 12:32am

so 50%.
got it.

ive maintained or climbed as well, at points… has nothing to do with my point… once I peaked diamond in season 7, its been all down hill ever since, despite my record actually being a little above 50%.

so you climbed, (during a win streak) but then eventually you went on a loss streak and got back down, correct? aka 50%…

thedrizzle-1753 · May 6, 2018, 12:33am

lolol about what I expected

What exactly is your point in detail? You think blizzard is forcing you to lose?

thedrizzle-1753 · May 6, 2018, 12:35am

What are you even talking about?? I have climbed from 1600 to 2764(current SR). I haven’t gone back down to 1600…

Unordinary-1639 · May 6, 2018, 12:35am

I do think that Blizzard match making does put you into scenarios where they do stack the odds against your favor, yes.

This season im 31-30 but im up +100 SR. I am not talking about rating/SR. I am talking about wins and losses.

But the losses, have been stomps. I rarely have a close loss. Maybe 2-3 were close losses. the other 27? You could tell pretty much from first fight or two the game was decided. Even if we cap or held for awhile, it was only inevitable.

Thats my point.

on a season to season basis, i am talking.

example

you start at 1600
climbed to 2000
then maybe back down to 1800, then you are done with the season and go play another game (as example)

then next season, you place 1950 after placements, then you climbed to 2400, then back down to 2200

then season after that you do placements and place 2300 and climbed to 2600, then back to 2400-2500, etc

the point im making is did you ever finish a season, playing 100% of the season til the very last hour, and finish at your season high - and the answer to that is probably not…

thedrizzle-1753 · May 6, 2018, 12:38am

Okay well I refer you back to the reference that wasn’t “relevant”

How Competitive Skill Rating Works (Season 9)

If the match-maker says most games are fair, then why are there so many stomps?

There are many reasons:

Overwatch, as a game, has a tendency to snowball. The winner of the first fight has an ultimate advantage that has a tendency to last the round. Losing teams tend to tilt and start playing poorly, which can continue in the same round and carry into the next round.

Random variables are random. Maybe a cat walked on a keyboard or someone fat fingered an ult (7). Maybe someone who has 99% up-time for their internet had their 1% failure that day. Maybe one team has all dps mains, and the other team is well balanced. MMR and predicted win percentage only has validity over many matches, not each individual match.

Not every player tries hard every match. Sometimes this is subtle, like playing with a beer or two too many. Sometimes it is less subtle, like practicing a hero a player is not good at, regardless of team comp or map.

Some players actively break the system, by either hard throwing, that is intentionally losing (as opposed to soft throwing as in item 3), playing on someone else’s account to boost it, or other similar actions. These actions are bannable and should be reported when seen. Blizzard has promised to take stronger actions against this sort of thing (17). However, soft throwers and hard throwers can be difficult to distinguish, and Blizzard has to error on the side of caution to avoid banning the wrong people, so it will always be a problem. The in-game report UI, as well as a key blue post (36), give guidelines on what behavior is or is not bannable.

New accounts in general have less data and will have a less accurate MMR. There is no required minimum number of games to play, so new accounts can stay “new” for a very long time.

MMR itself is only approximate. See the section on “How Accurate is SR”, below and realize that MMR generally will have the same issues as SR, with respect to accuracy, except it is harder to measure what is going on with MMR.

Okay, stomps are going to happen, but why are there so many win/loss streaks and large SR/MMR movements? Shouldn’t a player’s SR/MMR be fairly stable once he gets to the proper rank?

Win probability changes slowly with rank because there are so many random factors in each individual match. Unfortunately, it follows from this that frequent and long streaks will occur, and a player’s rank will oscillate widely. Essentially, a player will tend to bounce between the range of where he is nearly guaranteed to win and where he is nearly guaranteed to lose. The range varies from player to player, but +/- 250 SR/MMR is common and +/- 500 is possible. This problem can be analyzed in depth, mathematically (34).

Unordinary-1639 · May 6, 2018, 12:39am

You want me to read this dribble about cats walking on keyboards and thats why it was a clear stomp lol

ok man.

thedrizzle-1753 · May 6, 2018, 12:52am

Okay i come in peace. I’m sorry if I have been aggressive. I’m a Computer Engineer and very familiar with mathematics/statistics. I’m not telling you this to brag,seem intelligent, or claim i know it all. I’m saying I’m just familiar with the patterns that happen so it doesn’t concern me win I see the way the system behaves

What you’re describing is not anything forced it’s just normal distribution statistics,coin-flip statistics, and cumulative. You can model real data and they fit to standard statistical patterns . the links I’m trying to show give you this information over 1000s of game per multiple random players. Just take a look I promise it’s not dribble, it’s real data used to explain the system.

This is the math:

https://us.battle.net/forums/en/overwatch/topic/20759379305

This is the general explanation(See subsection “Match making”)

https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/overwatch/t/how-competitive-skill-rating-works-season-10/85269?u=thedrizzle-1753

spanky-12513 · May 6, 2018, 12:58am

total 2555 played
1236 won
1229 lost
91 draws
ive been between 48% & 54% win rate since season 1
its not forced.
im just never improving, never changing.
im average

Unordinary-1639 · May 6, 2018, 1:22am

Yeah, makes sense, 2500 games later you havnt improved. I believe it 100%.