What I don't get about "forced losses"

Version HC.

This would be impossible. it simply wouldn’t work even if you assume everything you said was true. People that think this are right that it’s a dumb idea and that the system shouldn’t work like that.

It doesn’t.

Good questions. I’ve asked this several times and have had no response that was even close to convincing.

It’s funny. The same people who blame blizzard for incompetent balance and matchmaking also assert they have an algorithm so complex and accurate that it can force them to lose whenever it wants.
Either blizzard is incompetent or they aren’t. These people need to choose.

Be careful, you’re using real world data and intuition to make reasonable questions. Not only that, but the example you cite, bronze to GM players, nearly acts as a counter example to the “forced losses” claim.

I say be careful because those things are not received well by proponents of this conspiracy.

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I respectfully disagree here.

I find views of the “omniscience” of the MM to be directly proportional with a person’s views of the “corporatist evil” of Blizzard. That is, those who think it’s supremely competent think “forced losses” exist to “hook” people on the win/loss cycle. This is especially prevalent in Version 1, 3, HC, and X. The whole viewpoint ultimately relies on Blizzard purposefully lying.

Those who simply think it’s incompetent basically think the system is overly complex for what it’s attempting to do. If their idea was accurate they’d be right, but of course they don’t really understand how it works. This is Versions 4 and 5. I hesitate to call these “conspiracy” theories as those who think this don’t think Blizzard is lying but that they are stupid and created a system that can’t work. Incompetence isn’t a conspiracy.

Version 2 is a doozy as it has to be incompetently designed AND lying, but I think the bad design overrides the lying part in that they don’t think Blizzard is telling falsehoods so much as just not being forthcoming.

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I think the issue is that huge loss streaks do occur and there is no fix for them. The most common reason for my long loss streaks is being matched against another team that has one player that plays exceptionally well. On more occasions than I can count I have been matched against or with admitted smurfs repeatedly the same evening as many as 6 out of 10 matches. Since I normally point out they’re smurfs, they will often throw when they realize they’re on my team, so this is partially my fault for believing reporting them will result in Blizzard banning them. An example is two of the same smurfs from season 5 are still trolling bronze now and Blizzard has done nothing about it.

That’s a fair point. Perhaps I am falsely lumping in two exclusive groups of players. I do, however, remember arguing against people on the forums that seemed to think both ways. Either way, you raise a good point and it has been received.
This is definitely the “conspiracy theory” though.

The fix is that huge win streaks do occur. When I started a season in the past I lost something like 18 games in a row.
I didn’t let it affect me, and, even though I didn’t actually win 18 games in a row, I had several win streaks that got me back to the rank I was at previously.
This is just my anecdote, so take what you will from it.

Your anecdote is interesting, but forgive me if I say it’s a tad unbelievable. It depends on the frequency of this happening, to be honest. I would argue that you have far more games that don’t have smurfs that make the ones with smurfs have less of an impact.

If you know their tags and have proof you can send it directly to Blizzard. I have a second account I was deranking so I could play heroes I am bad with and it got banned for an entire season.
I wasn’t even throwing in the deranking games I had. I’m just not nearly as good with Ana as I am with the other healers and wanted to join groups that didn’t mind me sucking ass with Ana.

This absolutely wrong. Unfortunately some people spread this misinformation. As a sad attempt to justify their rank to themselves as being not their fault. But let’s not dwell on that.

The matchmaker exclusively matches based on MMR. This has been verified by official Blizzard employees multiple times. Here is just one example: (note it is from a while ago before you could drop tier icons).

https://twitter.com/playoverwatch/status/850435344457543680?lang=en

It’s also easily demonstrated in game. If a GM player decays to 3000 SR, they will be put right back into GM games even as “a diamond” because their MMR is unchanged. Likewise, in the past placements used to lower your SR, but not your MMR. Thus you could see the exact same effect at all ranks, not just above 3000SR.

The “mystical matchmaker” people talk so much about is just one number for each player: your MMR. It goes up when you win, down when you lose, with the amount changed based on a few factors, but those are just some details. All the match maker does it try to get as close of MMR between people in a game as possible, because that is a balanced, fair match.

Once you understand how the system works, more or less the same as classic Elo, you realize why all these crazy conspiracies about things like “forced losses” are wrong.

For more details and citations about the match maker, see Kawumba’s excellent thread:

Well, I won’t dispute that. I’ve thought that too, but in the end I think those people just fall into Version X where they’re really not making any sense at all and can’t explain their position enough to even argue with. Those people are pretty rare, really. Most can explain their idea a bit better. Still makes no sense, but generally internally consistent, at least, with one or two major cognitive errors.

If you can find the argument I’d like to review it to add to my post of cataloging all the conspiracy theories.

The first thing I said is:

The largest problem I see is that people simply don’t understand that a system that can determine your skill accurately can by definition rank all those who’s skill it has determined. I kinda understand the confusion as there does appear to be a different system for each.

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What i’m about to tell you isn’t embellished, exaggerated or made up, this is actually happening . I have one account that is DPS only and it hangs around 3300. I only solo queue with this account and got it to diamond and have been there every season I have ever played it, I have never been in plat or lower with this account.

I have a second account that is mainly for tanks that hovers around 2600-2700. Sometime a couple of seasons ago it started getting too low, around 2450 so I decided to push the rank up a bit so that the teamwork won’t be so bad. I started dpsing with the same hero’s I use on my 3300 account. Once I cross into 2500-2600 I am getting matches that I am not able to win. Keep in mind, I’m destroying people, (really obliterating them with doomfist) but I still can’t win. These matches are without a doubt just as difficult to win as the matches I play at 3300 because the match is stacked against me. What do you think happens when people feel that the teams are purposely stacked against them? Toxic behavior, throwing, attack torb, people dropping from games - these are all side effects of a bogus matchmaker.

But here’s what I know about the matchmaker. If I keep playing these unwinnable matches with my DPS that I use, over and over and over and over and over, eventually it will turn on me and I will be given matches that I can’t possibly lose and suddenly have this spurt of wins that will shoot me back up to 3k. So is it possible to rank up? Yes, but only if you are playing around 1000SR above your current rank. Then once you get there the match

I have personally witnessed this same pattern probably 50 separate times since I’ve started playing this game. It’s an awful experience that limits creativity in gameplay, causes toxicity, frustration and will ultimately lead to the demise of this entire game.

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I will say this… a few days ago I climbed to 2200 on my support account playing ana after quite a few glasses of wine and doing just fine and climbing (no I wasnt getting carried.)

Fast forward 2 days later I cant buy a win in high silver sober on another account cause of some of the dead weight I get stuck with.

I am not saying there is some vast conspiracy but it sure seems strange to do fine one one account at about a tier higher but then on a lower account get my face kicked into the dirt.

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isnt it just a little strange ? … that not one of us … but the majority of us seem to experience this VERY odd PHENOMENON? where one day you win win win win win win win then the next day you seem to be matched with multiple teams of COMPLETE morons that look to be literally throwing and or the enemy team members all seem to be much much better than your current teams ? oh and isnt it also kind of funny that que times on the loss days seem to be much longer ? … ever pay attention to that ? nahhhhhhh im just a crazy person that needs to git gud

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I’m not sure if I agree with forced losses. But I do agree with the odds stacked against you for climbing.

From my experience, I’ve noticed if I play insanely well, and lose; I lose 0 SR. My guess would be that my mmr is higher than my SR and with in game stats boosting sr gains/losses it keeps me elevated. If I play really well and win, my rank goes up a ton.

The inverse is true too. If I play badly and win, my SR just goes up a little. If I lose, it tanks.

Where it gets wonky is with matchmaking. I’m climbing up from silver. I started in gold season 1, and never played well or much. Recently I decided to try and climb. I’m finding that there are better players in high silver than in low and mid gold. I can’t be sure if the system is rigged since the player skills are so drastically different game to game.

To be honest, I don’t like the system. I would like it to be more elo based with no hidden mmr. As it stands now, if you don’t over perform you don’t rise quickly. That means if you’re a flex player, you’ll be stuck in whatever rank you’re in for a long time. You need gold’s and silvers to rank up fast, anything else the system rates you as subpar.

Example, a player switches to zen from dps halfway through the game to help counter the opposing team’s comp. That change wins the game. However, the players stats in game doesn’t look good. The SR gain will be minimal, even though the game sense of that player is great.

The system seems to only care about outliers, everything else is overlooked.

That makes it so if a player finally climbs to a new SR where games are more tough, instead of being able to adapt, they can lose a few games and be brought back to where they were more than a few games ago.

As I’m finishing writing this, I’m pretty sure I’m off topic, sorry.

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Maybe, but I appreciate your perspective. I’d like to ask you more about it. Please take the following questions as someone seriously asking you. You seem to have a decent understanding of how it works, or should work at least, but at the same time you have frustrations that are based on common expecations. I’d like to know what you would think is better or if you understand “why” it’s the way it is.

Well, yeah. “Climbing” really shouldn’t happen. Common misconception. There are games where the SR system forces a progression, WoW being one of them, but it’s pretty clear that in OW even the initial placement is meant to be as accurate as technically possible. Any movement would then be a “failure” (of course no one really expects the MM to be that accurate that quickly, it’s just a goal). What expectations regarding progression did you have going into competitive?

This is the first I’ve heard this. Now, there is a known bug where if you leave a match after you are “safe” it will give you very little SR if you win the next round, but you also say it’s true on a loss, which I haven’t heard before.

If you could provide some evidence, even a tracking spreadsheet or something, it would be very much appreciated.

Honestly, one of my complaints with the system is that it should be this way. I’m pro-SR, but for decay, punishment, and simplicity. Not for “feel-good” mechanics like always gaining on a win even if you should have won easily. Same with early-season depression (which they’ve stopped).

Again, why would it not be this way? Why do you think you should rise quickly if you don’t overperform? I really don’t understand this idea and you’re definitely not the first to say it. Please help me understand where you’re coming from.

I kinda agree. The goal of the system is to properly rank people. The people properly ranked aren’t the concern. It’s literally the outliers that we are concerned with here. Those people need to be properly ranked asap. What would you have the system do with those who weren’t outliers?

MMR is Elo based, whether hidden or not. You’re talking about the performance modifiers which we call PBSR (Performance Based SR). It’s a good discussion to have. It doesn’t exist above Plat though. If you don’t already know just ask I’ll break it down for you. No question, really.

The idea is that a person improving (adapting) will cycle up and down hitting new highs each time. I understand your point here, I think, but you also need to think if the other 11 people who now have in the group someone who still needs to “adapt”. It’s justifiable as a product of natural variation, but imagine putting struggling players on your team as a matter of policy. We get lots of complaints with the natural variations in skill. I’d hate to see what we got if people were given a few chances to suck at any particular rank! Would you want someone on your team that has shown over the last few games that they struggle to maintain that rank?

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MMR. If an average gold X hero is on fire 10% of the time, an average plat of the same hero is on fire 12% of the time, diamond 14% of the time, etc… if someone is “throwing” (intentionally or not) they might only be on fire 8% of the time. It only takes a few games for the matchmaker to realize “hey, this person is X rank but belongs in Y rank” and gives you opponents with higher MMR than you.

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This is entirely wrong.

  1. “On fire” has nothing to do with the ranking system, at all.

  2. The matchmaker always trys to find people with as close MMR as possible. There’s no “give this player higher MMR opponents”.

  3. The matchmaker isn’t some general artificial intelligence, capable of reasoning. It’s an MMR system. Your estimated “skill” is your MMR. If the matchmaker thinks you’ve improved, that means your MMR has gone up. Those are equivalent statements. Everything the matchmaker gleans about how good you are is wrapped up in your MMR, one number that goes up when you win and down when you lose.

Stopped spreading these ridiculous myths. Once again, Kawumba has taken a lot of time to detail how the matchmaker works, including ample citations to actual posts/comments/etc from official blizzard employees. Read it instead of falling for “fake news”.

I’ve gathered a ton of useful info from the many of you who believe the matchmaker does try to force losses and I have two follow-up questions from all your replies.

  1. To what extent are your losses or sharp fall due to hitting your skill ceiling? I expect most of you don’t think you can hang with top 500 players. So at some point you’ll hit an sr where you will inevitably lose due to playing against superior opponents. How do you distinguish between this natural fall and a fall forced by the matchmaker?
  2. If there was an sr reset with the hidden mmr removed, how much higher do you think your sr would be from what it is now? Please post your current sr and “real” sr under the fair system.
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I’m do not in any way think I am some epic player.
At best low platinum. (I used to play high gold, but quit for a year due to this very issue, now I can’t get out of low silver…)
But I agree with the forced loss thing. I play a tank 90%, sometimes healer. I consistently get most if not all of the gold medals in matches… but I cannot carry a steaming bag of dog nuggets.
It’s just not possible for me to 1v6. I’m not that good.
Any time I start making progress, I suddenly get a (nearly) unbroken string of losses. And not just, wow, gg, close match, losses. I’m talking about flat out, red team wiping their butts with our faces matches.
Sometimes I see blatant cheaters and they get reported, but for the most part it’s just a complete lack of skill and cohersion vs a team whos healers heal and dps does damage.
You can’t tell me, in any way that I would believe, that blizzard doesn’t have some magic on their end.
Sure, there are people that can break past that and into higher ranks, but not everybody.
So you have a lot of disgruntled people, like me, who can see the forced losses. Whether they exist or not.

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Sorry to beat the proverbial dead horse…
I wanted to offer some constructive suggestions.

If the Overwatch team reads this.
A better (and feasible) way to rank players would be to not just focus on their wins/losses, but their personal contribution to the match.
Did the healers heal? Or just pick ana and snipe away at the enemy?
Is Genji hitting people? Or just jumping in and dying.
How much damage is the DPS player doing compared to their teammates.
It’s really sad when someone plays a healer (for the sake of team balance) and out-damages Soldier76…
It would be trivial to check game statistics and rate players based on their personal value (as well as team value, win/loss. This is a TEAM game after all, though sometimes I wonder…) rather than just deduct points because they lost.

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Nearly textbook case of Conspiracy Version 3. Awesome.

Clear example of Conspiracy Version X.

I’m curious what type of magic you think they have and what the purpose is to use it on some people but not everyone?

The overall theory goes that if you are doing the things that win you matches at that level you are having a good personal contribution. I tell people all the time that there are many more skills in Overwatch than just mechanical ones, to include resilience, empathy, and emotional intelligence. Those can’t be measured by any program (yet).

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I had a 75-79% WR these season with zarya and climbed around 650SR I dropped back with a 13 loosing streak I still don’t think forced looses are a thing but one thing I noticed pretty well, team mates got more toxic and the games got far worse the higher my WR goes and after dropping to 60% WR my games got a lot better and people less toxic.

These 13 looses was really bad i had a battle mercy, a 5 dps team, 2 leavers, 1 torb in spawn. Only 2 if the other losses were close were we could have won the rest were stomps, really really bad stomps

I guess the MMR just puts you with people to even out the win chance not to force you to a loss and since my WR was that high I paired up with people who needed a win, but hard carry isn’t a thing in this game so it doesn’t work out and I guess these toxic people were toxic because they lost many games before and were tilted, so I don’t blame them

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Ah, you misunderstood me.
The ‘magic’ I was talking about was just a reference to their existing algorithm.
As for the difference in players: I mean that some people really are good enough to break past this limitation. Most do not possess enough skill difference to make up for the difference in teams.

As for the theory… that’s all it is. At least in bronze/silver.
My personal contribution doesn’t matter. Usually. Whenever I hit the losing streaks, it has nothing to do with my skill. There is an impossible gap in performance between the teams.

What Beshi says amounts to the same thing. Blizzard puts people that win (or are good) in groups of people that ‘need a win’ i.e. are not so good.
Puts us in the position to continue losing.
And MAYBE squeeze in a win occasionally.

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