Better late than never? Well, I asked around and it sounded like some people wanted to see this. So I am posting. I had considered not doing this because we do have official stats now. I will put a strawpoll at the end to see if I should keep doing this anyway.
Anyway, hopefully this is a lively discussion as usual!
Some housekeeping.
Stats are from NA Top 500
They will not match the official stats exactly for a few reasons.
I calculate % pick rate differently.
It’s only the Top 500 not the entire rank.
I’m only looking at top 3 most played.
The TREND is very close though and you should be able to see that. I’ll post official stats for comparison.
Since we have official unmirrored win rates now, that is also good information.
I am aware of that. I called it out in the post. Cool thing is my stats show the same trends. If nothing else it gives me some confidence that what I’ve been doing works as a good approximation.
Um, okay? I don’t really know how you are calculating things, since, numbers are literally numbers. There is no approximation in “pick rates” or anything like that. I’m not sure what you are doing, but, now I think your numbers are just inaccurate? lol. Numbers are a science
There is literally only one way to calculate this
Sorry, only one proper way is what I mean. I guess you can “calculate” it any way that you want
Yes they are. But I have always been working with incomplete data. I’ve explained before how I account for private profiles which is the main problem. But basically I’ve had to take the data from open profiles and make an estimate for private profiles. Now that I can compare with official data I can confidently say that worked.
Mine aren’t guesses. They are using statistical estimates to fill in the blanks. It’s still math. I put the data into a spreadsheet and then use formulas to make everything.
And the reason is what RockMuncher said. This is only the Top 500 which isn’t available on the official stats site. So if that interests you then great. If not then also fine.
One other nice thing about this is it archives a snapshot that you can compare across seasons. The official stats site will reset in 4 days and this post will be the only record of what it was at the end of the season.
The primary difference between a guess and an estimate is that an estimate is an informed, reasoned approximation based on data, evidence, and experience, while a guess is a casual, uninformed conclusion based on little to no evidence.
