Someone explain the win/loss pattern

At lower ranks most games are one sided because there aren’t consistent players there. By the way that most likely includes you too. You can easily have good and bad days.

Tilting is another thing that might be your problem. You say you have days where you can’t win. I would recommend just taking a break after you lose 2 in a row. Losing streaks often happen because people get tilted and when they are tilted they play even worse which leads to more tilt and worse performance. Then you come on the next day and games are easy because you are under your usual sr and you aren’t tilted. Somewhat expect this could be something that’s happening to you.

This handicapping theory is just weird. The game has your sr and your hidden mmr. The game tries to pull your real rank to your hidden mmr because the game can tell where you belong to fairly accurate level.

I kind of just don’t understand how it would even work. To me it sounds like high mmr people are losing and low mmr people are losing. So who’s actually winning then? I’m genuinely curious as to how it would work not trying to be toxic :slight_smile:

Happening to most people. It’s how the matchmaker is trying to maintain a 50/50 wr. Happens when I watch high ranked streamers.

Pattern is called : skill level didnt changed
When you win, may be it is not your impact was a win condition. But games become difficult, more MMR than your SR so you will go back down where you belong. Like streaks happends even with best of us, but as gm player in gold you would not loose 10 in a row for sure. Means SR diff.

There seems to exist a trend, where winning many games will net you tougher opponents and weaker teammates - and conversely, where losing many games will net you stronger teammates and weaker opponents.

In essence, if you “tryless” you’ll get placed on a team that will eventually carry you. And if you “tryhard” you can expect to be placed on a team full of idiots.

This actually encourages/rewards toxic behaviour.

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It’s because the matchmaking system built around the MMR that it uses doesn’t balance games. It “balances” them, but the correct term for it is that it handicaps players. In order to keep the queue times very short it doesn’t actually balance games. It just handicaps higher MMR players and fixates the games so that the highest performers play with spergs while the mediocre players receive the good teammates

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The matchmaker seems to operate on an estimated “value” of skill. It looks for 12 players, then sorts them based on this “value”. Then just like captain’s picking their team, players are added to either team with the “sum” of these values adding up to be as equal as possible.

Now, imagine one of these players has an unusually high value. Say 3x higher than the next 2 players - let’s say a value of 100 where the next 3 players have a value of 50, 40 and 30. The matchmaker will place the stronger player on team 1, and the next 3 strongest players on team 2 - totaling 100 vs 120. It will then place the next strongest player on team 1 (let’s say they have a value of 20) until its sum eclipses team 2, and vice versa. Then repeat until teams are filled.

This is “how” the matchmaker establishes its famous 50/50 win chance. And it does so by stacking odds against stronger players by matching them with weaker players. In the end of my example, the stronger player will be pitted against 3 moderate players and 2 weak players alongside 5 far weaker teammates.

I hope this helps to illustrate how some certain games end up being “absolute rolls” most often with one player on the losing team doing their best and losing. At the end credits, usually 4 red cards will show up - however occasionally the stronger player will emerge at the end as top 4.

I’d also like to suggest this topic. It’s a good read!

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It’s handicapping in the sense that the probably purpose for this design is to give bad players a sense that they are doing well in the game when they are actually being carried by carefully picked teammates.

Blizzard says so themselves, the algorithm should make your win rate 50/50 when you reach your given mmr.

The only way this is possible is if they have rigged it in such a way as to ensure that losing streaks and winning streaks are evened out.

This is why climbing takes so long even when you have a positive win rate, unless you are very very out of rank your win rate should be held back by the system to give other players a chance to beat you better.

Blizz probably likes forced 222 because it makes the algorithm easier to game and more predictable.

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There is no such thing as stronger or weaker player. You have MMR and you are placed most of the time very close to it. In match where everyone is[quote=“Nano-22210, post:87, topic:586213”]
This is “how” the matchmaker establishes its famous 50/50 win chance. And it does so by stacking odds against stronger players by matching them with weaker players.
[/quote]

It is not true if you say it like that, you are only saying one part and not saying second part. First of all, yes you can end up as strongest player on your team and you can be teamed up with weaker player. But even when it happens, they are not odds against you. Its still average team MMR vs same average team MMR. Not to important thing which you missed on purpose because it goes against what you believe. Just like you can be the strongest player on team, you can be the weakest player on team. Its completely RNG and your performance has no effect on it.

I dont know exact numbers but for a example to explain how are you being placed in games, lets say that 70% games is filled by players very close to your MMR. On 15% games you are one of the strongest, on 15% you are one of the weakest.

Basicly only games where team mates are significantly different in MMR is when groups are in match.

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I was hard stuck for a couple of seasons, all of a sudden I’m winning most games and getting 19-24 SR per win and only dropping 6-10 for a loss. I main support and I used to go for Moira if she was available and Mercy if she was not. I have now reversed that and that’s made a huge difference. I don’t carry but I know I’ve definitely saved many fights from wiping out. My play has improved heaps and I know I’m more effective, the system has finally noticed - maybe it actually works!

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This is exactly the scenario I want players to picture, thank you for illustrating it. I just want people to understand that Blizzard’s patented “balancing” system is patently unfair.

the system forces you to carry and its like, bro, i just want some good teammates.

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You win some, you lose some?

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Well it happenned again… yesterday i was on a win streak, today i have lost 4 games in row so far - with 2 stomps and 2 afks…

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Honestly, without seeing the gameplay (share a replay code or two), nobody can help you identify the issue, sure sometimes you’ll get garbage teammates, throwers and afks, but please, just to satisfy the crowd, give us the replays.

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I already replied to you about this.

Yes but you are still wrong, thats why i reacted.

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How can you be wrong about being right?

What I’ve said is how the system works. What you’ve illustrated is how you want the system to work.

Honestly, the only point you’re trying to make is that MMR is fair and unbiased. Then tell me, please do tell me, how teams still get absolutely rolled in competitive play. If everyone is matched 1:1, then all competitive games will result in marginal victories. Never landslides.

Yet you nor anyone can deny one sided matches still occur.

You’re assuming that every player always performs perfectly on their average performance, never any better or worse for any reason and that the hero pools of players have no influence on the matchup.

I can play against a player who is exactly as good as I am but one of us will out perform the other simply by one of us doing better or worse than we do on average. Humans are inconsistent and all it takes is one player playing slightly better or worse than they normally do to make a match lopsided. Not to mention that if one person’s hero pool is ineffective against what the other team is running or doesn’t synergize with what their team is running, then their impact will be drastically reduced from the lack of synergy. It doesn’t matter if someone can “just swap to a different hero to counter” if those counter swap options are heroes that the player knows they aren’t good on. Even chemistry matters, some random groups can start talking to each other from the start and working well together in terms of communication and just playing together while others just use comms to fight and blame each other for something that went wrong or even just never talk to each other at all.

Landslide games happen when one team manages to synergize better than the other or even just one or two people in the match are having a better or worse game than their average performance. Not to mention if one player is rated higher or lower than they should be.

If it was as simple as “all their ratings/average performances are close so the game should be even” then there’d be no point in playing most any matches as we’d be able to perfectly predict who would win. But that’s not the case. People are inconsistent, matchups matter, some teams are able to form chemistry and communicate better than the other, and synergy happening amongst a team but not the other happens. All it takes is one thing working out one way and the other team not adapting or adjusting to take back momentum for a “landslide” to happen.

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Ok dude, its impossible to argue with someone who say something like this :rofl:
You are wrong because you are not right :roll_eyes:

What you have ilustrated is how you think system works. Well sorry to tell you, but it doesnt. Its not true just because you say it. You have no evidence for it.

Because there is many things ngs which affect outcome. For example team present in voice chat with good team coordination can easily beat and stomp more skilled team where players are not in voice.

There is many things like that. Someone can be drunk, toxic, having bad day, there is too many variables which csn lead to one sides match even with perfectly balanced teams. Matchmaker cant predict future.

Stomps often happens not because of team not being equal, but becsuse of how is overwatch designed as a games.

Consider this, two equal teams, one player is late to point, enemy cap first point because of it, enemy team have ult advantage now and easily cap second point having 4+ minutes. Then in defense they have full hold. Why? For example because they had all players presented and they had good hero setup.

Or just hero picks choice can make huge difference. There is too many things which can lead to stomps even with balanced teams.

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Imbalance. Off-game.

One player. Sure.
Two players? Eh, sure enough.
Three players? Meh, still winnable.
The entire game? You’re drunk, go home.

Multiple consecutive landslide victories?
Denial is the first stage of grief.

That one bit of logic is preposterous and just as ridiculous.
Yes, human inconsistency is a problem and one would expect any issues to be marginal, brief and trivial. The MMR system is supposed to act as liaison to account for preconceived human error (that’s wrong btw). Yet, where players have experienced multiple landslide victories OR losses, you deny that it’s the system deliberately doing this.

Despite the overwhelming evidence that the system DOES in fact rig games into 50/50 chances of winning. In that case, even if a player is a little off that day - or they’re juiced up on coffee/energy drinks - it won’t affect the outcome because the odds are already stacked against them. Literally the better you are as a player the worse off your odds in general.

This fact compounds exponentially with the fact that teams with players of unequal skills will have VASTLY different views on how to play, making any synergy between them increasingly difficult in proportion to the odds MMR has decided for the match.

Your entire argument in this case boils down to a simple concept. If MMR decides you can carry a match, regardless of how you’re feeling or how unequal the skill levels are on your team you should carry said match.

Of course I’m willing to bet in any such case, more often than not, whenever a team must be carried by one or two strong players the difference can never be made up in time. There are too many factors to consider, and by a stroke of luck will you land on a workable composition.

Deny the system any fault all you like. It doesn’t make its errors magically disappear. Thousands upon thousands of players experience this, with a marginal few that do not understand the system thinking it’s only the players to fault. Both sides are only partially correct.

But what matters is that you cannot blame players for their incompetence while defending this precious MMR system of any fault whatsoever. Even if I climbed to top 500 today, it wouldn’t change my views on the system, because by its very principles it is a rigged system.

And yet, competent teams still know how to adapt and minimize losses. Team stomps are a practical reality, but you’re asking for the inevitable whenever you place people of uneven skill on the same team.