Let’s take a look at Valkia. Inarguably one of the best Pharahs - last I checked he was at 260 in top 500? At least Grandmaster level. Surely in the top 1% of all Pharahs. His accuracy for hits is 50% and about 25% were direct hits. There are other factors that grant him his ranking such as game sense, awareness, teamwork, and positioning but I think we can safely assume his accuracy is likely far above average to make it that far.
Ok so, let’s assume Valkia was a madman and just held down LMB so he was spam firing (to maximize the full benefit of the rate of fire increase) but still maintained his accuracy while doing this. We’re also going to assume that every time he did splash damage he JUST barely missed and got the full value of splash damage in each scenario. Over 1 minute currently a Pharah of that caliber will be doing 2920 damage while in the new patch Pharah will be doing 3080 damage! That’s great! Going from an average of 48.66DPS to 51.33DPS that’s a 5.19% increase in damage!!! …if you’re one of the best Pharah’s playing the game…
To get that 5.19% increase we are assuming that you are firing every single waking moment of this 1 minute to maximize the benefit of the new fire speed (because that’s a thing top players do right? Never not fire?) and maintaining a top 500 accuracy rating while doing this. Also we assume that when missing you get maximum splash damage every time too (I can’t find stats here so it’s been left out of calculations but old splash damage is better). If we play in reality that +5.19% increase in damage is closer to 2% to top players and dips down into negative nerf numbers for most Pharahs. Finally this is a direct damage decrease when intentionally missing against Genji deflect or Bridgette shields for the splash.
Want to see the spreadsheet data and how I got these numbers? Read this post I don’t know how to post non-blizzard links without getting an error message! Running the numbers: Pharah changes (math closer to reality)