Let’s say I top offed this season at 3500 but ended at 3000. For next season’s placements will my new rank be based off my final sr or season high? Because in I think season 6 I went 300 under my season high but still placed higher than my season high for that season.
Season Transitions
However, occasionally a player will have a large movement (24) in either direction. This happens on relatively inactive accounts (39), and can be explained by Scott’s statement: “Play a lot of games, it (MMR) gets more certain. Don’t play Overwatch for a while, it gets less certain. The more certain the matchmaker is about your MMR, the less your MMR will change in either direction based on a win or loss” (2, 48). Essentially, if a player only does his placements, or slightly more than that, in a season, his MMR/SR is prone to much wider swings when he returns.
Because of reasonably high quality data for seasons 6, 7, 8, and 9 (24), it is possible to derive a formula: (New Season Starting SR) = (-173.7 +/- 20.8) + (1.0015 +/- .0059) * (Previous season Ending SR) + (37.94 +/- 2.23) * (Placement Wins). New Season Starting SR has a standard error of 181 SR (24), which implies a possible change in rating during placements of +/- 500 SR for inactive accounts. For active accounts, the max range is more like +/- 200 (from winning or losing all matches).
Decay does not persist through season transitions. That is, if a player decays from 4000 to 3000 before the season break, he will typically place around 4000 after the season break. Of course, if he is an inactive player (which decayed players often are), he may see an unexpectedly large swing in either direction.
Prior to season 6 (September 2017), players’ SR would be bumped down below their MMR at the beginning of the season, and they would earn it back with an SR buff over the course of 50 matches. This felt bad and was removed (15).
(2) Overwatch Forums Developer Update | Upcoming Season 6 Changes | Overwatch - YouTube Season Placement Data - Google Sheets Season 9 Placements Analysis, High Variance Explained Groups and Matchmaking in Overwatch
If you decayed to 3k is different than losing your way to 3k. The matchmaker will reward you more points if you decayed. The placements will give you a boost too if you are performing ahead the other players. If you are underperforming you get less points than you should during and a couple of matches after placements.