Yeah, the problem MR is likely going to have is not with their first season; it’s with their subsequent seasons.
Apparently they’ll be adding 2 heroes every season, which if true will quickly create hero bloat and make balancing even harder than it currently is for the developers. And players will start to bail when they realize the game balance is bad and will continue to get worse thanks to hero bloat.
Steam is semi-banned in China they have access to a restricted version with only selected games, chinese players use netease launcher most likely it’s more popular there
it’s possible yeah they can find themselves in a “goats” situation, but in the meantime ow need to survive the onslaught
Enabled for PC players, sure, but not necessarily for console players.
As a PC player, you are completely unable to assess the frequency or proportion of pure console games from situations you can directly observe.
There’s a heck of a lot of assumptions in the numbers you’re using, and that’s not very firm ground to stand on. Most of those assumptions are neither well explained nor well defended.
Again, I agree with your broad conclusion for various reasons, but the argument you’re making isn’t very numerically convincing because of the degree of assumptions and uncertainty involved.
It may be indeed. But Overwatch isn’t available in China so I think the comparison is a fair comparison still.
It’s confirmed, right now they are running a beta or something like that to test servers. Seems like it will launch officially with season 15.
Crossplay is enabled by default on Rivals for console players.
Regardless, I explained in a later post that the console data is extrapolated (from Rivals data) anyway. You can omit console data and the proportions remain the same because they are a multiplier of PC players (3.3/12 = 28%).
You’re making a rather large pile of assumptions and showing very little of your work.
It’s highly speculative. And that’s okay…as long as you own up to that clearly, which in some posts you are, others not so much. In one of your replies you admit you have no direct way to gauge OW console population, but this fact is not even alluded to in your original post.
Anyway, for the record, there’s reason to believe that console population proportion is different for the two games: MR isn’t on PS4 (or Switch I think), whereas OW is. Now, how large of a demographic last-gen platforms are at this point is hard to say, but I guarantee you it’s non-zero.
Just to make sure, did you discard any potential bot match when calculating the MR numbers? As those could lead to an increase share for Rivals.
No, just unranked quickplay.
You need to be playing on Steam to be able to see Steam players.
People seem to be assuming that Rivals players are mainly former Overwatch players - and that’s not a bad assumption. Overwatch is popular enough that almost anyone interested in Rivals will have at least tried Overwatch at some point. But it is bad to assume that all Rivals were active Overwatch players prior to the release of Rivals.
Rivals is also drawing players from everywhere at the moment. It’s the big new thing. I know people who don’t usually play PVP shooters who are playing it. I also know people that play both Rivals and Overwatch.
There doesn’t need to be a winner and loser here. IMO it’s more accurate to say that Rivals has sparked new interest in the hero-shooter genre rather than killed Overwatch.
I’ve noticed that our Discord channel had to cancel OW night, which is where we have teams put together by people. Usually we have extras and sometimes 2 different matches. It was canceled due to lack of players last time. I’ve never seen that happen. Also, nobody is playing OW atm. People are playing MR instead. I play both, but I’ve been playing MR more.
Weird because I’ve been playing multiple games every night with short queue times for a while now.
I’m not submitting this work as a technical dissertation to the scientific community so I don’t need to own up to my work. Don’t value my work? Don’t. Better yet, do your own maths so we can all learn from you…
And no, I don’t have a way to gauge console population. Do you know why? Because there isn’t a way to gauge it. So yes, I had to make informed speculations. Better than criticising a piece of work but providing zero workaround or solution to it.
It’s basically a lot of nonsense, so, yeah, I won’t, lol.
First of all, why would I care? Secondly, there’s no proper way to gauge even close to an accurate number without working at both blizzard and netease, so, it’s a pointless exercise.
So basically you have nothing to say. Thought so.
You are just stating statistics that literally mean nothing.
You realize there is more than just, “I played unranked during this time and found these numbers in this region with this ping at this rank etc. etc. etc.,” right?
Your statistics literally show nothing. You are making wild claims that are based on incorrect premises.
By the way, I don’t know if you are aware of this, but MR gives you bot lobbies if you lose a couple games in a row.
Unranked quickplay adds bots too… If you lose two matches in a row, the next game will be against bots. Easy to spot due to the low difficulty and private profiles with generic nicknames on the opposite side.
Didn’t know that, thanks for clearing that up.
Having said that, I don’t think I’ve lost two games in a row, or maybe once? I’ve been winning most games if anything. Also my numbers seem consistent throughout and there isn’t much discrepancy i.e. there aren’t many outliers that make me think an anomaly is happening. Last but not least, the numbers will hopefully even each other out with more samples in due time.
It’s not indicative of anything though buddy.
By the way, steam players peak during asian hours for OW2. Do you play in Asia? If you do, you will see far more players on steam there than you would if you play in USA.
You need to realize that you need to think about things before just stating “facts” like “MR has this % of the market.”