That is my experience as well. I’m closing in at 10,000K wins here soon and oddly, I can’t seem to ever deviate from a 55% win percentage.
yep! OW2 maybe better as you can carry harder but this is why i quit OW1
Checking through my notes, I have one day during season 13 and one day during season 19 where the full day of comp matches alternated win-loss-win-loss for the play session (at least 7 games).
But yeah, in most cases, it’s not a perfect back-and-forth.
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Just curious, you take notes on your wins/losses for every time you play comp? It doesn’t sound like a bad idea. Has it helped you at all?
It has only helped in validating the SR system. In the vast majority of cases, you’re gaining/losing between 20 and 30 SR, and the extremes outside of that are tied to the following:
- placement matches
- outrageous differences in team SR
- exceptionally short match duration
- matches where you don’t earn a medal
- very long win/loss streaks
It’s not 100% to those trends, either. It’s just that when you gain/lose more than 30 SR, there’s a good chance one of the above happened.
As for improving my gameplay or anything, it hasn’t done much. It shows how few people stick around to the stats pages after a match ends.
I remember a video of Jeff Kaplan explaining how it works, he said something along the lines of “…and the fact that this evens out to roughly 50% win rate is an indication of success”
Ive been looking for the video but I can’t seem to find it. I did however find this…
…and it seems to match what I remember so it seems right.
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The matchmaking is whack, I am convinced it does batch processing over night or something because that’s how it goes strings of losses then strings of wins then yo-yos. Its absurd and belies any rational sense of statistical outcomes. If this were a Vegas game you would know it’s rigged on some level.
This statement from that video has nothing to do with streaks. He was referring to what defines a successful outcome of a matchmaker. The goal of any matchmaker is to create matches that it believes are fair and balanced. If it’s doing it’s job correctly, then your chances of winning a match are 50% (a perfectly even matchup) and over time, your cumulative winrate should also be close to 50%.
Back a long time ago there were streak bonuses used to help adjust smurfs faster, but that’s long since been removed. Even so, this is different than forcing streaks or placing you in matches for the purpose of artificially inflating or deflating your winrate to lock it to 50%. This just doesn’t happen, and is generally a belief held and parroted by people who think the matchmaker is rigged.
It’s always been like this. What gives it away that it’s rigged is how easy your win streak matches are. When I go on a big win streak it all feels so effortless like I’m playing against players 3 or 4 ranks below me. Then when I go on a losing streak it feels like I don’t even belong in the matches.
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No statistics professor would look at the persistent streaks in OW and begin to consider them normal, not in the least. I don’t believe the game conspires “against” you, but it clearly does some things and tracks that are very questionable. It is reputedly being overhauled for OW2.
If every match was as simple as a coin flip (e.g. purely random 50/50) then maybe, sure. But matches of OW arent that simple, and wins and losses can be determined by external factors. For example, being tilted or tired can contribute to lower performance and result in loss streaks. Same in the other direction.
Just because something isn’t a perfect 50/50 coin flip distribution doesn’t make it rigged.
Yup, exactly how it feels.
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The point is the streaks are to obvious, that there is tampering on some level. I have had several college level courses in statistics, I understand clusters, etc. This is not that in the least.
About three years ago (different account) I tracked 500 matches; its about 49.9 and 50.1 - so like 50/50. What stood out was that loss streaks usually outnumbered win streaks and were almost always longer, this from someone who doesn’t tilt easily either. I have no doubt were I too repeat this today (I plan too in OW 2) it will be the same nonsense.
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I feel like you didn’t actually read my post or you wouldn’t have replied with this. There are external factors besides tampering that can produce such results.
I know this; that is already factored out.
I plan on another 500 match check in OW2, I bet I get very similar results.
I do not believe the game actively conspires against you, but it does do some things that border on tampering.
I’m failing to see how this would in any way prove that there is tampering. Just because you dont “tilt easily” doesn’t mean there arent other external factors involved. Humans are not machines that operate with consistency all day every day.
Call it having a sense of statistics. It’s not natural I assure you.
I’m no stats expert like you but my merely mortal mind does think the streaks are too odd to be completely random. Agreeing with what DeadlyPants stated, the games feel so drastically different from each other. Rarely do I have win streaks that I feel I really worked for and rarely do I have loss streaks where I feel I even had a chance.
Another thing I’ve noticed is my loss streaks always happen after I hit my seasonal peak. I’ve gone on huge win streaks to T500 and then immediately dropped down to diamond within a week. Then I’ll go W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L for weeks and then another huge win streak will happen outta nowhere. Rinse and repeat the whole process every single season.
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That is exactly what just happened to me. Got to my season peak and then got busted down so hard.