Either youre getting really bad luck with the SR of the enemy team being lower than your own or your stats arent high enough. Probably a combination of both.
No, anchor stats arent actually a thing. You can see this if you smurf. It only takes ~3 games to flip SR gains from hugely positive to hugely negative.
Incorrect. The low lvl smurf accnts still have extremely volatile and unanchored mmr shifts. They can’t be used to prove/deny the existence of anchor stats. That’s the entire point, which you missed.
Anchor stats means you’re overfitted - you’ve regressed to a personal mmr expectation and mean, but your net win rate over the course of your accounts is different. So you’re anchored in at e.g. 45% career win ratio but your mmr is over-converged at say 2300mmr.
So you’re constantly being expected to perform at a 2300mmr, but sitting at 1300sr. Which means you get weird matches that try and average teams out around your carry-like mmr, and if you don’t perform, the sr changes larger than your mmr - meaning no ranking up.
For older accounts, the sr and mmr don’t end up converging. This is because the mmr is more stiff than the sr. The sr +/- gains are basically identical per win or loss, but after a while your long run mmr just won’t budge.
I hope this helps.
Well, first of all, the smurfs accounts I’ve used are silver to plat border, so…
This is just patently untrue.
First of all, there’s no such thing as a forced winrate. You reach ~50/50 when youre at an appropriate rank because youre playing against similarly skilled enemies. Not rocket science.
If your MMR indicates you should be higher than you are, youd be getting large gains anyway. A 45% wr wouldnt be able to stop you from climbing if you were actually overperforming
The idea that MMR gets anchored at any point is a laughable excuse used by players that have clearly never tried smurfing/SR manipulation in a rank that they’re actually above
On a platinum border account, it takes no more than 5 games to go from +10/-50SR for W/L to +90/-10SR
And I honestly have to ask, what makes you think you understand MMR as well as smurfs do, when you constantly post about how youre hardstuck in low ranks?
Can you explain this to me…Just asking out of curiosity - Does system, if you preform extremely well, are going to put with people that are not preforming as much just to make a … balanced teams for a game?
So you’ve used multiple high level ‘smurf’ accounts to test ladder manipulation, ruining the game for others. Gotcha. Sadly it sounds like it wasn’t even good science.
You’re also using your own examples for this, instead of trying to see the math behind these ladder issues.
Because I design, optimize, and improve systems by profession, and a common mistake even in blackbox classifying mechanisms is overfitting and overconvergence. Without an epoch/reset, you’re not dislodging the account classification from it’s sr faster than it’s mmr. It’s a known problem, and the factors/symptoms are basically the same here in OW ladder.
For ‘anchoring’, it ends up being the mmr that is more hardstuck (we call this parametrically ‘stiff’) than the sr. The sr gains/losses are roughly the same per win or loss, and that is out in the open so no questioning it. But the long-run hidden mmr doesn’t fling itself around wildly anymore on a very old accnt. It hardly budges. What that means is you’ll be matched with people above or below your mmr, to average out the match (hopefully they use a harmonic mean for this, but I bet they don’t).
Newer accounts get backpressure effects by having the mmr shoot up or down much faster than the sr, meaning expected throwers or carries and what not. Older accounts get backpressure effects by being expected to perform at exactly the same mmr almost always, despite not feeling up to it, or being paid quite more or quite less for it (much different sr because of long term win/loss drift exceeding mmr changes).
Zen is not good into every comp. Struggles vs Tracers, Doomfists, Widows and more generally spam damage.
While overall quite a strong character, there are maps where he is really bad (eg 2nd point Dorado attack).
Flex 3-5 min to Lucio or Moira when you’re dying a lot and you’ll win more games.
In general, to win a game while 1 tricking only 1 hero for the full game you need to be insanely skilled once they start countering you. Not only in terms of aim but also positioning, deciding when to prioritize your life over saving a teammate and also understanding the enemy team’s mentality. Even low SR Diamonds are not fully stupid like many would have you believe and understand some basics such as the fact that Zen is an easy kill.
Also if they don’t run stuff like Zarya (Grav), Ana + Genji (Nanoblade) or Rein (dps pressure on shield) there is little point to being a Zen.
Ball and Winston can also make you sad.
Yes and no. The conspiracy is that the game intentionally matches you with “bad” teammates so they can halt your climb and force you to the rank they think you belong. This is paranoia and confirmation bias
The reality is that the game tries to find pools of players within a certain SR range to place against each other and tries to make it so that there’s an even average of SR and MMR on each team.
That means that in some games, you’ll be the highest rated player on a team/in a lobby and sometimes you’ll be the lowest (im sure you’ve been in games where everyone else is either one rank above or below). And some of the time you’ll be perfectly in the middle and someone else will (probably) be the outlier.
Carrying during a game when you were lowest or underperforming when youre the high player will probably affect your MMR and the range of SR for your next queue, if I understand correctly
Tldr: you’ll have games where SR expects you to be the main carry and games where it expects you to be carried. Its just a reality of creating lobbies from available players. Not some sort of sinister conspiracy
Did you design this one?
Yeah, I agree with that mostly. Thing is, I am aware that thinking like that is paranoia and bias and people didn’t really hold me to progress.
It’s just that sometimes I get teams where I am beyond shocked what they are doing. I see Rein going with shield into some alley to chase one dude that seems devastating (Doomfist) while at the same time, he left us out in the open for 3 opponent players to fill us up.
Like, how the hell? So that’s why I am curious how the system actually works. I don’t believe in conspiracies.
Yeah, I know the feeling, and it gets frustrating. Especially when you have a run of bad luck and get these teams multiple times in a row.
There are also people actively throwing and/or playing thousands of SR below their actual rank, which basically throws a whole bunch of random factors into the matchmaking. Someone with gold SR and silver MMR can actually be capable of playing like a GM. Or they could be intentionally playing like <500
Just try to remember that averages are a thing. For every game where you get uncarriable teammates, you’ll also get a game where no screw up can prevent your team from winning
Sadly no. But people keep records and there seems to be no indication of these ‘unlosable matches’.
I’ll push through 20 losses straight, night after night. Screenshot entire replay lists of forced losses. Screenshot gold everything in those games. Livestream the matches where GM coaches say I’m clearly doing -fine- and even carrying. And yet we just lose.
Still waiting for the 20 loss streaks to ‘balance out’ with a 20 win streak. If things are fair, symmetrical, and ‘average out’, then we should have the same magnitude and frequency of win streaks as we do loss streaks. And since these games occurr around 500-700sr, there should actually be more bias towards unloseable as the system should expect my contribution to every match to be the most dismally minimal.
Except we know that won’t ever happen because things aren’t symmetric and fair. The proof is via the contraindication - no win streaks to balance out the loss streaks.
Come on, thats not true, you need a lot of games in winning streak to actualy start gaining so big number as 90. Like 12+
There are a lot of unlosable games, more than virtually everyone thinks due to negativity bias. People tend to forget about the games where their team completely trashes the opposing team. The simple fact that it’s hard for people to hard throw out of their ranks is forced 50% manifesting from the matchmaker’s design. Algorithmic Handicapping (MMR) is Wrong for Overwatch
11 months later…
With smurfs, the math is against a player.
Edit: Lol, I didn’t realize this was a necro.
I’m not a rocket scientist but I’m a doctorate for a Ph.D in Neuroscience. The only thing I took from your post is that you’ve manipulated SR/MMR before. What this tells me is that you’re part of the problem that the OP is experiencing.
“Shame.”
If you cant seem to rank up that means the system put you where you belong. If you wanna climb be better then the other players thats the point of the rating system
a number of seasons ago that toned down mmr climbing but not dropping.
Ok, ur right, I personnally saw a silverborder account being boosted from bronze to plat, he never reached more than 50 point per win but it didn’t took so long to see a shift in sr gain
Seems like anchor stats doesn’t existe
But mmr is there
Mmr is based, I think, primarily on ur stats, which one ? No idea
But if u have better stats than the average (hero u play) player in our rank ur mmr will rise up relatively quickly independently of ur sr, more the gap between ur mmr and ur sr is hugh more u will win or lose point depending which directions the gape is.
Also seems like victory or defeat don’t have a big impacte overall. I played with a friend who was gold, I was plat, he ended up in plat but honestly he was bad and I was in a rising phase of my sr, so basically he get boosted. But at the end he was winning less than 20 points per games and losing lot more
Seems like the mmr juste doesn’t thought he belong were he was. But if he suddenly started to have average plat stats while playing in plat he would have pretty quickly been wining ~25 point per games
And in fact that what happened, he learn through pain and finally reached a plat lvl for the mmr. At least look like sol because he’s still plat but now he lose and win ~25 sr per games
you also have to remember that average stats in these ranks are way over inflated with all the smurf accounts. Right now plat plays like masters of 5 seasons ago. In upper plat the mechanical skill is extremely high now due to so many smurfs. Even your average plat is aiming pretty well.