How much does badly losing one Placement match affect your placement?

This is a forum theory with no basis. If you are an active player, winning a game gets you about 19 SR. Losing a game costs you about 19 SR. Performance is a small modifier on top of that, just like the regular season.

See How Competitive Skill Rating Works (Season 11) → Season Transitions for more detail.

Regarding leavers: you don’t get any special consideration in SR (or otherwise) for leavers. See the section on the Leaver Penalty.

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