I’ve taken note of my SR changes as of last night.
Started at 1908
Win w/ Leavers on Enemy team +24
Second Win +23
Third win +27 (Won as 5v6)
Fourth Loss -22
Fifth Win +21
Sixth win +26 and into Gold / Season high
(Afterwards I stopped keeping track.)
One thing I’d like to mention is, these games were incredibly frustrating. There was no real composition to my team. No communication and players were wildly all over the map, not fun (Two of these games were won because the enemy team was C9, and I played from the CP finishing with G/ Objective Time)
Once I came over into Gold, I was presented with more well constructed teams but poor gamesense and performance. Games in this bracket are wildly unpredictable given people have some what of a fundamental understanding of the game, you’ll just have to hope they’re on your team otherwise you’re going to be punished.
While in silver, it’s possible to just brute force heals or go off in DPS and swing the game. But in the Gold bracket, teams are smarter and players have to perform at their critical roles. Suddenly climbing becomes more of a chore, and your team is either good or god awful.
Whilst in silver it just seemed like both teams were bad, and I could pretty much guarantee a win on my team. But in Gold it’s either your team is good and their team is bad, or vice versa. Rarer still is you finding your team being good, and their team being good (A fun/good game).
Swaying games in Gold would have to require Masters - Top 500 performance.
After last night I think MMR/SR is fundamentally sound, but I think needs to be improved on predicting a player’s experience. More importantly match making needs to be improved.
I did some quick analysis, from my existing database at Streamer Data - Google Sheets, and you may be on to something. I’ll have to do more analysis and think about the implications.
From the data you actually collected, you are gaining more SR on a victory than you lose on a defeat. Also, as of this moment, you have a 58.8% win rate.
These are climbing numbers. As long as you maintain them and continue to play, you will continue to climb.
The primary reward for ranking up is higher quality games. People that say that all ranks are the same are wrong.
If your skill is 250 above your SR, you will win more games than you lose and rank up over time.
If your skill is 500 above your SR, you will win most of your games.
If your skill is 1000 above your SR, you will hard carry. Games will be faster and the conclusion will almost never be in doubt.
Sure. Make sure to reference the current post (See above).
The significant majority of the evidence is that MMR is still in the game, but Scott is sloppy with his language. The section “But I just read this post from a developer…” is my current view on the topic.
Thanks for the data. I’ll look through it in more detail, but my first impression is that Blizzard made a silent change. My data saying that there are no streak bonuses in low ranks is from season 6 (Stevo's Bronze to GM Analyzed - Google Sheets). Streak bonuses still do not exist in diamond and above (recent data: Streamer Data - Google Sheets → NerfLucio 13), but your data makes it look like streak bonuses now exist in plat and below.
Once small divergence is that Stevo’s run was an established account, while Tesla’s is a newish account.
Yep I failed to mention that once he accesses to Diamond, it stabilizes around 25. I would myself try to confirm it but it is very unlikely for me to win more than 5 games in row. Even more to keep the same kind of performance all the way! Maybe other players could help with that?
I managed to get 6 wins in a row yesterday. Hard to say if there’s been any kind of buff after the 4th win… My data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cD4boQC1foCNoGYQeEJLGGYcKZRrQIUtvoY_QF64s6w/edit?ts=5c42abb6#gid=0
Note that in the first one, I played Brig to support a five stack playing Goats. Didn’t do much but still didn’t do that bad to deserve only 16SR. I believe the slight SR average advantage (+47) might have also been seen in MMR because there was a “long wait to find a balanced game” and the 5 stacks normal better win chances coul Od have played a role here, taking maybe 2 or 3 SR away.
On my fifth win, I performed very well, Gold elim and card elims 63% kill participation with only one death. Confirmed by Oversumo and Overbuff. Normally I would have expect 24-25 for that kind of performance. I got 24. Since it was the fifth and looking at Tesla, I was expecting a 25% buff, so maybe 28-29SR. But nope.
Just a data simple, but it might show that for established accounts, the streak bonus doesn’t apply, or apply later than the 5th or 6th game.
There appears to be some new, relatively sophisticated algorithm. DongQuixote (above) indicates that it can happen in a downward direction for established accounts.
My inferences for the rules are:
If a player has very high statistical performance AND
A high win percentage AND
Is on a win streak AND
Is below diamond
He gets highly exaggerated gains.
The reverse also seems to be true:
If a player has very low statistical performance AND
A low win percentage AND
Is on a loss streak AND
Is below diamond
He gets highly exaggerated losses.
But because of all the conditions, and the relative lack of data, it is difficult to be sure.
Actually the win streak portion used to be true but no longer seems to be. Below diamond, streaks only affect SR gains downward. I watched a recent bronze to GM from a t500 (Linepro), and he didn’t experience any winstreak bonuses; only performance bonuses.
It could even be more sophisticated by applying a streak buff relatively to the statistical performance anomaly. For Tesla it was after 4 games, then again after 8 apparently. For just above or below average performance, first buff could be applied after 8 or 10 games for example. Preventing that way most common lucky/unlucky streaks getting buffed but rewarding or penalizing players who might not perform statistically well or bad but who manage to impact matches results either way.
I quickly parsed the first day of Linepro’s run, and win streaks are definitely visible: Streamer Data - Google Sheets → The 500IQ 14. By row 14, his gains are 70+ for 11 wins. He then loses a game (-18 SR) and wins one (+24 SR), so his win streak bonus reset.
His SR gains do bounce around a significant amount but he was memeing a lot (battle Mercy, playing heroes he is not great at, not getting all golds, etc.)
I also reparsed the data the ursolost made me aware of (TheGoodSucc 13), from last season, and it shows pretty obvious win streak bonuses, that reset each loss.
Including me, above. You can’t trust everything you read on the internet, especially when Blizzard silently changes the rules.
I recently placed two accounts. So it might help you with the data.
I only played quickplay on the accounts and tryharded until level 25. By the end i was getting matched with diamonds and masters mostly with random gm showing up once in 3 matches.
This account:
Went 7-3 with tanks and got placed in 2699 while only playing tanks and supports. Died a lot (7-8/10min). However had good stats overall.
Other account:
Tryharded and was getting matched with plat/diamonds (no masters or gm showing up).
Went 7-3 as well during placements but this time played hammond, phara (14 minutes) mccree (8 minutes) and zen (4 minutes). However had arpund 29elm/10 minutes and 4 deaths/10 minutes. The account was placed 3056. Right now after 113 comp matches, it’s at 3206.
That’s interesting! I think what that data confirms is that no matter what someone’s MMR is in QP, everyone starts at the same point in comp. Estimated at high gold I think. And performance, more than results, is what determine someone’s SR after first placement matches.
Note also that your 7-3 could bring different results even with the same average performance depending if you had a streak or not. A 3 losses, 7 wins in a row would bring more SR than a 2w-1l-2w-1l-2w-1l-1w for example.
