Again:
You have enough data so that we can start to see this in action.
Here is your data from season 11:
As your team SR becomes higher [lower] than your enemy SR, you gain less [more] points on a win, and lose more [less] points on a loss. The trend lines are clear, though noisy due to the effect of performance SR. The trend lines are also fairly slight, reflecting the rather slow change in expected win percentage with differences in SR.
If I divide this into quadrants, you have:
Top Right: Wins where you were expected to win: 23 +/- 4.8
Bottom Right: Losses where you were expected to win: 24 +/- 4.9
In theory you should have won more than you lost, but the error bars are big.
Top Left: Wins where you were expected to lose: 21 +/- 4.6
Bottom Left: Losses where you were expected to lose: 32 +/- 5.7
It seems you have lost more than you should have, but the error bars are big.
Maybe you are tilting when you see that you are underwater with respect to SR. But the error bars are pretty large. Maybe you’ve just been unlucky.
Breaking these numbers into bins of 10 SR:
I’d love for this plot to have the clear expected trend line, but it doesn’t and the error bars are way too big. But hey, if you’d like to play a couple hundred more games and give me the data, I’ll happily crunch it. I’ve wanted plots like these for a long time, and this is the first time I’ve seen data that has even started to approximate what Scott is describing.