Forced loss? Is it real?

Yep i had like 5 wins in a row recently. I played the best i can, and i won 5 games, amazing right ?
This remind me, back then when i played warcraft 3 (like 10 years ago) i had also forced loose streaks and forced win streaks.
This is the same conspiracy of blizzard in OW now.

They are everywhere…

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What about not so recently?
Have you had streaks of games, which you couldn’t win despite your efforts?

Yes that’s called life rule my friend.
Enough joking, ofc i had some streaks which i cound’t win despite my efforts, but that’s part of the randomness in online games.
When i have loose streaks, i stop after 2 or 3 and take some breaks.
It’s better to do that, than believing the matchmaking is putting me down like a true special snowflake who complain when something is a little though.

Sometimes I get forced wins, sometimes I get forced losses.

I think the matchmaker might even be controlling how I play

I brought it up a few months back.

My theory is that your MMR is determined by various metrics (kd ratio, etc). If your MMR is above your SR, so you “belong” higher, you get given other team mates with good MMRs, so you’re far more likely to win.

When your MMR is below your SR the game thinks that you “belong” lower, so you get team mates with bad MMRs.

I’ve been in massive streaks of unwinnable games with utter trash teams. I then nursed my MMR a bit and suddenly on an 80% win rate with godlike team mates.

I’m now LFG a lot this season. Not going so well, but at least I can see where I am going wrong without any “noise” from a broken matchmaker trying to “place me where I belong”.
I can now look at my issues - I’m top 2% for survivability, but not contributing enough in games in terms of frags or heals, and work on those issues without auto losses due to leavers, throwers, feeding morons, etc.

I’m going to be picking up dps heroes, or certainly those that can make big plays - Zen, Junkrat, Roadhog, Rein. At the trash elo I’m at it’s “best dps wins” and I want to be in control of my own destiny more.

I had this before myself. I was hard stuck at 1700 as that was where my MMR was set. (Broken Mercy SR after Orisa patch meaning I couldn’t advance with 60% win rate didn’t help).

Suffice to say that I’d team up with my gold dps friend and we’d win 5 or 6 in a row and I’d be close to gold. I’d foolishly solo queue and boom, trash team mates until I hit 1700.

Happened twice more, close to gold duo queue then crashed back down to 1700 solo queue.

In the end I mained dps and climbed to 2350 super quick with a 65% win rate. And my team mates were so good a lot of the time. I’d shifted my MMR up by myself. When I was duo queuing with my friend my MMR didn’t shift so the matchmaker caused me to crash down each time I got “too high”.

Is super obvious that the matchmaking system is super manipulative and it causes a load of stomps and toxicity. It’s too clever for it’s own good.

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Forced loss is not real. However, all competitive matches are handicapped with Match Making Rating.

They calculate the chance-to-win for each potential match and it’s used to decide which teams to match, your wins and losses are for the most part not only predictable, but engineered to, over time, result in a 50/50 win rate.

While some folks may think these supposed forced losses are related to them, if you look at the larger picture the concept make more sense. Blizzard wants as many players playing as possible, players stop playing if they lose too much – but not everyone can win all the time.

Consider a system which tracks a happiness or engagement score for each player, when that player wins, gets a promotion, or a legendary skin that score goes up, when they lose, that score goes down. Combine that with predicting and matching teams on chance-to-win.

It doesn’t seem strange to me that a company looking to make everyone happy would look at that average happiness score for Team A and decide what chance-to-win is acceptable for their next match in the interest of distributing wins (and in turn happiness) in a way that best fosters engagement. In that vein if Team B has a low happiness score the match maker may match them with a team that is less skilled but has a higher happiness score – or generate that team by matching players that combine to result in a team with the required lower chance-to-win.

Handicapping is one piece of the system employed to generate a team to match a desired chance-to-win against another team.

White Knights seem to think Blizzard just lets the matchmaker be more or less random and that’s a ridiculous idea for a company worth something like 20 Billion Dollars – Billion. They don’t get there by leaving engagement and player satisfaction to chance.

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Of course, it’s not as black-and-white as that. The effects of the type of system I outline above would combine with other more obvious factors, some of which would increase the perception of forced loss streaks and others would detract from it (being at a higher ELO due to a win streak for instance, luck, tilt, etc). One of the games of big data is small percentage influences that show trends over time.

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That’s different from a “forced loss.” To me the term suggests a single game that you are “forced” to lose in some way. The reality is that you can always win or lose.

You’re completely right. Blizzard is regulating customer experience, at the expense of fair treatment for competitive players.

I agree. Though I think most players complaining are using the term forced loosely and hyperbolically. You, or some portion of your team, may have to play 25% more effectively, or just get lucky (opponent team drop), to overcome an unfavourable chance-to-win. It’s all a matter of percentages.

I think Josh Menke outlined at one point that chance-to-win calculations are only expected to be correct a certain percentage of times, the system’s confidence in it’s predictions, and he mentioned 60% or something.

If it predicted you had a 40% chance-to-win for 100 games, it would be 100% accurate if you won 40 of those 100 games. It’s not expected to be 100% accurate. So if it’s predictions were expected to be 60% accurate that would mean it’s doing it’s job even if you won as many as 64 of the 100, or lost as many as 86 of those 100, even if you had a predicted 40% chance to win for all of them (someone can double check my math there).

I’m not entirely sure about that number, but the point is that the system knows that you have an X percentage chance of upsetting the predictions (which would show over time), and if you do upset the predictions it’ll probably bump your MMR and you can bet it uses the data to improve the next predictions.

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Agreed.

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I used to think it was forced wins and losses but now I wonder if it isn’t the matchmaker being garbage.

For sure there are bronze players in gold and likely vice versa.

There is no such thing as “forced loss.” However, all matches are handicapped by Match Making Rating.

Ah-ha. This seems to be the underlying issue in so many threads like this. People dislike losing more than they like winning.

It isn’t.

Blizzard doesn’t control player behavior, that’s all on each individual person.

that’s entirely misinformation.

I lost 400 Sr in one week, simple way to solve it: done with Overwatch.

Maybe that’s your problem.

No, forced losses are not real. The Blizzuminati is not after you.