But again, it’s about team play. Personal play means nothing outside of what your team can do. I seriously cannot outplay 6 people alone, no one can; certainly not with any kind of consistency.
Really tired of reading about how “you can climb up no matter how crappy your teams are.” we don’t get rewarded for losing and no matter how good i do, if my team loses, i lose sr.
I’m not terribly concerned with it as i don’t build my day around Overwatch comp play, but it’s misleading to tell players that if they are good, they’ll move up when their teams are consistently crap or flat out trolling.
That’s not how probability works, and is a gross oversimplification of how the game’s matchmaker works. This also makes the assumption that it’s possible to carry a game, when the game naturally stacks the odds against you.
There are 3 separate types of players can adopt – DPS, Tank, Support.
Even if you flex, you have a preference… you are a Flex with a DPS preference/Flex with a Tank preference/Flex with a Support preference. This groups you into the above 3 types.
Assuming you’re part of a majority in Competitive play that prefers 2/2/2, with 3 roles in the game… straight off the bat, even if you’re a Flex player, you have a 66% chance of getting an unfavored role.
Only 33% of your games will you be in a comfortable position to actually be able to carry.
Both of the above applies to everyone. The simplest chances of all the players on your team getting a roll they favor, is 0.33^6 which is a 1/729 chance, PER GAME.
Because of 1HL and 2/2/2, this probability is actually exclusionary.
While you have a 1/729 chance of everyone on your team getting their preferred role, you have a 1/427,518,000 chance of everyone getting the exact hero they want.
Even if your team isn’t comprised of onetricks, and can specialize in 3 heroes, that’s still only a 1/142,506,000 chance for everyone on your team to play their favored heroes.
Since the matchmaker isn’t parametric (it doesn’t sort 2/2/2 & favorite hero by playtime), you’re going to get way more matches where you play something you don’t want or are just decidedly average in. This means you only get a fraction of the 1/142,506,000 chance of a perfect game where you COULD carry in.
And because the matchmaker is targeting you with a fair match (which in layman’s terms is a forced 50/50), you have a 50% chance of the fraction of 1/142,506,000 chance of actually winning and carrying and getting the hero you want to play and teammates also being the heroes they want to play, and team being a 2/2/2.
Leavers and throwers, on top of smurfs, skew probability even further. Nevermind doormats and spiteful bullet biting, it’s just simply not as barebones cut and dry as 33%, 33%, 34%.
And we KNOW it’s not as barebones simple, because you can win 1/9 of your placement matches and still end up in Plat or Diamond because it bases your starting Comp MMR off of your Quick Play MMR.