"But McCree's winrate is sooooooo bad😭"

General Discussion
60

its literally double the second best dps (tracer)

56% is for rein, and it makes sense since there are less tanks to chose from

I dont think thats how percents and pickrates work

I have not seen a single person say rein is fine and doesnt need nerfs

61

It’s not that complicated.

As pickrate increases winrate normalizes to 50%.

There are many factors that determine what hero a player picks, so pickrate isn’t a perfect reflection of power.

But it’s a good indication, especially in higher ranks where players play to win.

62

pickrate = 100% / 6 = 16.666667%. That’s the max theoretical pickrate per hero/team. A hero with 12.8% pickrate is 12.8*6 = 76.8% chance of being in both teams. Rein statistically appears in every match, and so does zarya. and this is across all ranks.

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63

It was an example of how mirror matchups effect average winrate, in that, because the sample size is so large it doesn’t. If a hero was mirrored 95+% of the time then yes it would start to have a significant effect on the average.

But I get it, people will go to all sorts of lengths to rationalize their beliefs.

You’re looking for holes but you can’t find any. Just accept that you’re wrong and advocate for design changes that achieve the same effect in the correct way. If we nerf McCree and similar heroes that are and have been in his position that will make balance worse and subsequently effect the integrity of the match making.

We do not want the winrate delta between the top and bottom DPS picks being so far apart, that is good for no one. I want the playerbase to stop malding about heroes that perform and win games below the average, while bringing their averages closer to median. Everyone wins.

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64

i never see mc and think “oh we have a problem”
i fear zarya, pharah, genji, df. Heroes who will take over the game if you dont counter them HARD. mc is a simple hero who gets value from proper shielding and healing. if rein was not the king of the game, mc would have average or even bad stats.

1 Like
65

The fact u think dragonstrike and pulse bomb are two of 3 worst ults based on stats shows how much you lack understanding of ults. Visor barrage and death blossom are by far worse ults, but they’re used strictly for kills, whereas deadeye and dragonstrike arent.

66

how is it distorted, when it is clear number? Hero got so many buffs, + he is in meta now, and still performs bad, barely 50% wr in GM. And by saying he is meta, I want to say, that other heroes enables him, rein+bap, so these all buffs doesnt matter, 200 hp or 225 hp old or new state of cree have to be played into this. THe real buffs that this hero is required is to decrease his hitbox model, make it tiny like ana and he don’t need +25 hp at all. Rn his hitbox fits 250 hp more than mei’s hitbox model. I don’t mean real hitbox, but those which outlines him 30% above actual player model.

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67

I’ve seen some but well I’ve checked some topics and it seems more people do think Rein is too strong.

He doesn’t until the pickrate is 100%. If a he has 76% pickrate (as a possibility of a one player picking him, I guess?) so there’s still 5% a team will not pick him, and about 0.3% noone will pick him. Which is yea very low but technically there.

68

100% means both teams.

1 team is 50%.

in overbuff numbers, 16.6667 and 8.3333 respectively.

They don’t have pickrates per match, they have them per team. If team A picks rein and team B doesn’t pick rein, it’s a 50% pickrate on that match.

One could say: you’re wrong, because I’ve been in matches without reins! Well, that’s the thing, I’m using statistics that are based on pickrates, but I can’t draw a perfect conclusion because for one match not having 1 rein/zarya at least, it means the mirror match percentage increases. What is guaranteed is a minimum of 53% of mirror matches with rein

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69

But you cannot conclude that eveery match has Rein with statistics if his pickrate is not 100% per team. If the pickrate is high you will end up with some very small number of games where he is not picked. But it will still be more than 0.

70

Yes, that’s what I said. I’m drawing the conclusion that pickrate can translate to that. What can be assured based on pickrate, since it’s team based and not match based, is that anything above 50% pickrate necessarily implies mirror. Then we subtract that offset from top and we at least know that rein has AT LEAST 53% of mirror matches (when there’s a rein, obviously). That’s the only definite statement when it comes to mirror matches.

Now then, if pickrates were calculated on a match basis, we could draw much clearer conclusions.

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71

Checked his overbuff stats. 10% this week in GM so as I get it it’s 60% to have Rein in a team. 36% of a mirror then.

72

I took monthly.

I see I might’ve made a mistake in one thing.

Maybe the correct way of looking at it is so 10%*6 = 60%, now we take that 10% and that’s the minimum chance of a mirror match. Then 60%/2 = 30% is the max chance of a mirror match.

Then in the case of 12.8%, we’re talking about a min chance of 26.8%, with a max chance of 38.4%.

If that’s the case, then a mccree with 6.91% has a negative min chance of -8.84% and a max chance of a mirror match of 20.58%

Yeah, that makes more sense. I took the second tank chance as the chance for mirror and it’s half of that

1 Like
73

If a chance to have a Rein in a team is 10%*6=60% then to find a possibility of a combination of events we need to multiply their possibilities. That’s where my 36% came from. Also, I took weekly cuz monthly would be affected by a previous patch.

In case of Cree his PR is 6.9 (6.88 to be precise) so 41.28 to have in a team, 0.17 of a mirror and 0.33 of a game without any Crees.

74

Yeah, so mccree has a max chance of mirror of 41.28/2 %(which means he’s only played mirror), but the minimum chance of mirror is less than 0%, as he’s not even consistently in 1 team.

That’s what I wanted, a range of possibility. mccree is 0-20.64%. Rein has 10-30% with your stats (and 26.8-38.4% on mine)

1 Like
75

Pickrate, obviously.

The pickrate was similar, the winrate was off.

It is that complicated.

This is from a guy who has been having frequent email exchanges with the Overbuff website developer.

76

not so much higher
allot of people REALLY think meta matters allot even in gold
when…it doesnt
so allot of people across all ranks would play this hero making the winrate be about 50%
would it be perfect?
no
would it be close?
somewhat

77

What really frustrates me about McCree is that he just Flash/Fans and you just lose. Instant I WIN button. Lame.

2 Likes
78

It’s not tho. I remember months back saying the buffs were a bad idea, as he was already at 3%, and watching him rise and rise as he got unnecessary buff after unnecessary buff. Now ppl realise what a mistake listening to the McCree fanbois was and it’s too late

79

How dare you show evidence that proves these forums wrong, how dare you!!!

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