The 50% win rate is real

I don’t loose rank points; for each draft dodge 200 points are withdrawn and returned 50 at a time. This stacks.

MMR, not rank, is equivalent to skill (at least according to B*).

Your argument is that I have poor knowledge, whilst I am able to predict winchance of my matches beyond 50%? Do enlighten me then how I can stage a comeback from the terrible draft and win those ~20% of the matches. Remember: I’m “stuck” at 50% without draft dodge, so doing anything better is out of the question (and also dumb given the skill disparity between me and people I play with).

I know the 50% win rate isn’t real but it does feel like it sometimes.

Playing in a stack normally I have a ~53%+ win rate. Examples from the other night:

  • As soon as we go 4 stack instead of 5 we get matched with the worst players etc. The B3 that refuses to play anything but Chromie and lose ~150 points (ok they were favoured).

  • We get a Silver (They get all Diamonds, Plats and a Gold) who decides to ARAM all game and then flames us when he dies alone. Lose another ~190 point (ok they were favoured also I guess)

  • Go back to 5 stack. Proceed to win all the rest of the games.

While I know there isn’t a forced 50% win rate: How does the game know they would lose? Some days it certainly feels like it.

Side note: A couple of our regulars have decided to quit after those matches (and the amount of smurfs in ANZ).

I’m certain you lose 500 when you draft dodge and you get back 50 over 10 games BUT it does not stack

The problem with the system is that it does often expect higher MMR players to carry lesser players instead of pitting equal skill players with and against each other.

I’m not so sure if its a population problem either. This game had matchmaking like that even when it was more populated. I guess the lower population and changes to MM amplified it a bit though.

I don’t think Blizzard has it out to make you lose but at the same time I believe that they do have an objective to make fair matches and 50% might be the representation of fair that they have chosen for this game.

It’s a system that can seem like an anchor wrapped around your neck! Would be nice to have a system that brings you from a child to a soldier fighting with other well trained soldiers! Sometimes it feels like your the well trained soldier playing with the children!

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I’ve been saying it for a while now: The system will intentionally take Good players who are winning a lot, have good stats (average number of kills, typical damage output per match), etc, and stick them with the chumps who are losing a lot, in a bid to balance things out.

Some call it the “Mentor-ship Que”. Those instances when it seems like you can’t catch a break regarding your teammates? How it seems the system always matches you with these losers that can’t hold their own for anything, leading to devastating loss after loss? It’s not in your head and, you aren’t having a “string of bad luck”. The system is intentionally drafting you to play with the garbage players out there.

My best advice: If you suffer (3) terrible matches in a row? STOP playing. Take a break. And come back later. If your keep playing, those losses will just rack up. The idea is when you log-in later, you’ll be out of the mentorship Que by then and, can start having ‘normal’ matches again.

Edit: For the record, i’m fine with losses if we were legitemently outfought. What makes the salt mines flow is when i’m consistently being matched with garbage players and, i never had a shot to begin with.

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It’s not hard to notice some obstacles/difficulties and just giving up.
But you have no proof you’d lose the games you abandoned.
And since you keep getting Dodge penalty (which affects your MMR), you’re technically just Smurfing, keeping your MMR lower than your actual skill lvl. Honestly it’s weird that your winrate is only 70% this way.

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I am no draft dodging expert but I also thought that the punishment gets stricter the more frequently you do it and at some point you won’t get back full of the lost ranking points. No idea how it has an impact on your MMR as well…

Anyways, bragging around with a 70% winrate in 50 games, therefore abusing the mechanics by dodging all the unpromising drafts is just embarrassing and doesn’t require any ‘prediction skills’. On the top of that, this guy is also missing out any relevant informations (rank placement, where did he start at, smurfaccount (?), which modes is he playing resp. on which modes did he achieve this winrate).

I’m not sure how but I think I’ve had the 500 points loss with only 300 gained back (50 each game over 6 games) but I am not sure how this happened or why.

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“Blizzard doesn’t force a 50% winrate, they just make sure you only win 50% of your games.”

Glad you joined the party! :tada:

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ya mean, if you ignore all the other times people have posted those, and get tired of repeating stuff that people are going to read anyway cuz they’d just as soon as think they’re already ‘right’. The sort of people that made bad cases for stuff aren’t going to win a Pulitzer over an ‘argument’ on a game forum.

Funny how people that don’t pay attention don’t bring an ‘actual argument’ but keep demanding everyone else have one instead.

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So you just admitted that there are unpromising drafts, therefore making games not a 50% match but rather an uneven show in which your impact has to exceed the negative impact of the bad draft to win the not-in-your-favor match. That’s a natural 50% gravitation, causing MMR~skill failure within the system by means of a local maxima (creating pooling). Glad you agree.

I turned a 50% stable winrate into a virtual ~70% winrate whilst me and my assigned fellow players were steadily going up in rank (within bounds of the stable winrate deviation). That is to say, I threw ~15% of my matches away that I know are going to end in a loss and I did not take a hit. Those matches are lost, or I would have been going down.

Also, 100 games with 15%, gives 1 out of 5 played. So my dodge penalty is gone.

Think less yolo and more experiment setup.

How is that a snarky response? According to the math in your OP, that would be 100% true. Put your money where your mouth is.

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I dont understand the “git gut” mentality that people have…

Even if you get better and you start winning the MM will start FORING YOU TO CARRY lower skilled players against higher skilled players, after a point.

That is the problem.

The garantee loss that comes after that. It sucks mostly because the games are terrible and a waste of time and not because we want to win all the time…

Any proof for this or more like a subjective judgement? There are so many topics about this and people still claiming the same over and over, just because they are hard stuck and not being able to admit that it is on their own responsibility. If you get better you will be paired with and against better players too. Thats why you will get to a 50% winrate when starting to face equal skilled players (which is reflected by MMR) after playing hundreds of games. This is how it works. The system is not designed for every player to have a 70% winrate.

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You need proof? Go get 3 wins in a row. The 4th match almost garanted to give you aids…

Thats because you will get lower skilled teamates against higher skilled opponents. And its the same if you loose. 4th game easy afk win…

Like i said its not about winning or loosing… Its about playing good games!

Your claims are just not substantiated… I could send you screenshots of my match history. I can tell you it looks pretty random. Sometimes lose-win-lose-win. Sometimes 10 wins in a row or 10 loses in a row (mostly at times I should be sleeping already ;))

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More than the system is not design for every player to have a 70% win rate, it is impossible to design such a system in a win-loose set up.

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Read.