Is Ranked a 50% win rate?

Competitive Discussion
1

Hi all. I was wondering if anyone knew if it has been confirm if it is a 50% win rate. I have noticed every time I have a good or bad start to a season I end up with a 50% win rate.
So far this season I was 20-10 then like clock work I got bad matches and my next win came after 11 straight loses. I know I’m not the best but when I am the highest on my team as Silver 1 and they have gold 1s it feels like its a forced loss system to average out my good fortune win streak

2

No and 30 games arent a sample size good enough to confirm anything.

I was 19-9 at the start of the season, threw a couple of games by bad plays so i was 19-15.

Now im 21-16 because i played 3 games yesterday and actually played my best, after the first loss it might tilt you and cloud your judgement and make you do bad plays, happens to everyone.

Once when i played tilted and tired i got a 13 loss streak, took some time off and tried again and i stopped the streak.

3

Yeah It would be good to be able to play more to increase the sample size. I normally play 1 or 2 matches a day.

I have been getting “opponent favored” (1 point) almost every game. Well at least the last 5. Can’t remember before that.

Was hoping that it isn’t the case of a 50% rate and I’m just getting unlucky. I guess time will tell

4

Favored points are meh and dont really mean much before its 10 or more really.

Also theres no sense in forcing 50% winrate as it would just take extra steps from a matchmaking system that knows the skill of players and sets players of similar skill against eachother which will result in a 50% wr in the long run anyway, forcing 50% would take the extra step of knowing the skill and tilting games knowing it so everyone was at 50%.

No point forcing an outcome that would occur naturally with half the work.

It just wouldnt make sense in any way.

  1. It wouldnt save money as it would require more work.

  2. It wouldnt make players stay in the game more than the natural 50% would,on the contruary it would drive people away and make them less money.

Misplaced people exist, smurfs exist and players picking bad teamcomps and heroes exist with disconnects and drunk/tilted/tired people exist and matchmaking cant take these into the account really.

For example we had a players with crazy good winrates yesterday, 58%, 57% and 50something with a smurf of around 78%wr for the season, he was 111-30 this season.

We still lost as the 58% guy picked Valla after 2 squishies already and got blown up super bad, and died 8 times.

Bad picks lose games and it doesnt take bad players. By all accounts we should have won but our draft was so bad.

We had all the statistical advantage and personally im at 58% atm in HL so if there was a forced 50% i should have had sub 50% teammates.

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5

Good post! I know it only statistics and maybe it just feels like it’s forcing a 50% win rate.

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6

Literally every moba has threads on their forums saying there is a forced 50% wr, each of them offer no proof 8ther that they have a 50% wr, each of them get the same replies that no it isnt there, would be useless, shown not to exist by everyone climbing consistently and such.

When you learn more and get better at the game you will climb, ive been to Silver, Gold and Plat and im now Diamond after hundreds of games and alot of learning about camp timings and new heroes in my roster and a bit about drafting and looking at my replays to find my mistakes.

But you cant win them all, instead of being tilted from the 3 games you lost just focus on the 3 you won, see what you could have done better and improve.

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7

True. I was watching a pro that was playing a bronze account and only had a 70% win rate. This season I’ve been from silver 2 to Silver 1 to Silver 3 last season I was gold so tilted is an understatement today hahaha. Not a fan of this ranked system but still trying to enjoy the game hopefully i can work my way back up. Thanks for your info, insight and friendly attitude :slight_smile:

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For tips i would recommend just atleast timing your camps correctly to the objectives, i pretty much got from Gold to Plat with that alone but it also depends on the heroes you play if you can do that.

Then again i almost just onetricked Samuro from Gold to Dia with atleast 40% of my total games as him so i dont know if my advice is a bit biased :slight_smile:

The forest replies the way you shout into it, i respond to questions and such with the manner they are asked with.

A Blizzard fanboy who ridicules QM, tells that the MMR system is flawed in this team based game and has not given them a penny on any game.

Sure buddy.

Just because i dont chase conspiracy theories against the company and scream at them at every turn doesnt mean im a fan.

I like to use logical thinking a bit more, facts dont care about our feelings.

For context, Ender is a believer of forced 50 who got the same argument as you and his response to it was that i was a shill, no counterarguments and no conversation, just said im a shill and trolling and gave up.

Also even if i got paid 10k a month for shilling here, my arguments would stand on their own, doesnt matter who is presenting them as if they didnt stand on their own you could present counterarguments that would drop mine off the table.

Feelings arent arguments btw.

I have posted the same question OP did a few years back when i felt like i was “stuck” in Gold and believed forced 50 to be a thing btw, i just happen to be able to change my mind if im wrong by arguments so do tell me yours and back them up.

Insteas of attacking people who have arguments you should try to attack the arguments.

You cant falsify an argument by appealing to the qualities of the person.

Start simple and explain what would be the point in creating forced 50% wr even?

Or even point out a lie or a baseless assertion in what i have said.

Also to OP, if you want to search input elsewhere there is a HotS subreddit that is a bit more active than the official forums.

But you’ll find the same arguments and responses there there with some like Ender who believe in it as well.

There was a troll post some months ago on there about “Blizz confirming forced 50”, a screenshot of the forums and people jumped on it like piranhas on a dead cow screaming “i knew it” without noticing that the screenahot said it was posted in February when it was only January then and the OP actually confirmed he shopped it to see the reaction, some people never saw that admission though and left the thread thinking that they now knew they were right…

10

Dude stop kissing butt to Blizzard so much, they’ve already let the cat out of the bag on what was suspected so long:

Its not “forced 50” by an absolute iron fist, its like a soft “forced 50” due to its extreme over-confidence in what are largely fantastically assigned MMR values.

It also implements a buddy system, which they’ve admitted to; and alluded to “under the hood” mechanics, which many people think are the slot machine style engagement algorithms. The way those work is it wants to keep you playing and invested by generating highs and lows. While i dont believe blizzard goes full on evil with those tools, i absolutely believe it tries to pair downtrenders and uptrenders in a way to hamfist some validity on to its MMR confidence.

The proof is in the pudding man: So many damn matches in this game have people all the same rank, and yet RADICALLY different skill levels, abilities and knowledge of how to play, what to do in the game or draft.

EDIT: To sum up and address your point more directly, the point of “forcing 50%” is to create MMR confidence, and the illusion of validity/reliability. When in fact there is none.

3 Likes
11

Citation needed.

When and where?

There has been 1 research patent on something like this but was never imolemented and the patent in general couldnt be applied to the game as is also source?

Citation/source for the belief?

And it could be just as well a result of being skilled in different afreas of the game, ppl onetricking or misplaced players or jist trying a new hero basically.

I mean i do dumb things in my games and basically rhrow them sometimes when i play tilted and look like i placed lucky up high and belong in silver too.

The problem for me isnt that i think youre lying, i think you have been mislead, believe things just because of personal experience which is biased like everyones is or something else.

Its hard to believe in any of your claims as there is no proof or sources for the claims you make,if there was i would be right there with you.

I could care less if Blizz hq burned to the ground and HotS servers disappeared, all i care about is knowing the truth.

Time to believe is when there is sufficient evidence to do so.

13

Wheres your proof?

“Blizzard told me its fine” is not a source or citation.

EDIT: So a match was loading when i typed this, im not trying to be snarky, i understand why you have reasons for believing the system works: you’ve reached a point where you feel like you mostly belong and mostly get games that make sense. How nice for you. I’m really happy for you, honestly. What is that about, like mid diamond?

The only time i’ve started feeling like im playing with people better than me is when i started to scratch at diamond 5 in upper plat, where some games some players were definitely outplaying the pants off others. A lot of the challenge i faced there was after trying to herd cats through the clown parade so much, or by trying to solo-macro-carry games by myself, i was finding the adjustment difficult. But i would love the opportunity to try and get to that level.

The problem is when i play silver-plat, the players strewn about range from toddler level to near olympian in ability. There is no consistency. There is no rhyme or reason for which team is getting the Silver 1 Potato or the Gold 5 Child-God. None. Its just random luck. All i know is that i consistently put out solid numbers, rarely die more than 3 times, and try to time camps and participate in any objective we can reasonably get even numbers of people to in time.

I know the system is broken because every game i might see 3-4 total players like me, but up to 7 players who just are there to duel it up, mash buttons and feed. While a GM can maybe read this well enough to climb consistently, there is just too much noise for an above-average player to both carry his team, and draft without being a prick with enough regularity to rise out of it without a healthy dose of luck, or a new account bolstered by loose confidence.

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14

No ranked is not a 50% win rate, it is just driven towards 50% in order to keep matches fair. If one starts winning more than 50% one will usually be gaining MMR hence opponents become harder and hence one starts to win less. If one is winning less than 50% one will usually be losing MMR hence opponents will become easier and hence one starts to win more.

If this did not happen a person could ROFL stomp noobs all day having a near 100% win rate while the “noobs” have near 0% win rate. Hardly fair is that?

15

“Fair” is equal chance of winning, not equal chance of a match being a guaranteed win or loss.

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16

Well so far they have come out and said that they use MMR to create matches that you have 45-55% chance of winning.

(not sure if the ±5% is their inaccuracy of MMR because of the team element or if that is still not accounted for in there so it might be 40-60% in reality though)

If its wrong about you, youll win more or lose more depending if it thinks that your better than what you are or worse.

Also as Gold 5 is now the seed gap for smurfs its gonna be rough, overall i would say the hardest part for me to climb was probably Silver to Gold or Gokd to Plat, im not sure itmf it was me with alot to learn or that Silver/Gold players in general are really inconsistent in skill.

1 game they play like a Genji god and next they die 10 times like its their first time on a hero.

Still happens to me but not as often atleast on my Samuro, but i still do have some bad games every now and then where i get tilted and decide “Im over this” and just dive like a madman hoping to get atleast something done and then end up dying like 3 tines on Samuro out of all heroes…

Then there are games where the enemy has never seen Samuro and i just rightclick them and win or outmacro them so hard they have no idea what to do and their team splits up in pieces to farm up by the 4 man.

Like some games i might barely outdmg the healer if the 4 man manages to keep themselves from feeding, others i have to hard carry and get all the dmg and kills in and sweat in tryhard mode trying to juke every skillshot.

Just have to adjust the playstyle depending on the 4 mans ability to not feed or get kills.

The ability of the 4 man varies alot and im not sure if its just ppl picking their bad heroes, being drunk or MMR inaccuracy, i will never say the MM is perfect in a y way but atleast it seems like a honest try and im nit a person that attributes things to malice when simply creating a bad one is a simpler and more likely explanation

Still enjoy 2/3 games with some of them even being losses and like the game as it gets time killed so ita not the best but could be way worse.

Most losses i enjoy btw happen in QM, somehow it just feels more balanced somehow as games might even last 30 minutes, might be the bigger playerpool too.

EDIT: Also i apologize for long stories with no dragons, gotta get them in there some day.

17

So that translates to: “randomly set wrong mmr, that’s hard to change (or invariable) with a result of 50% won games and no ability to change the mmr”?

If that’s actually what you mean by it, then you’re completely contradicting yourself in that one sentence… It’s a completely impossible hypothetical situation. You can’t have incorrect invariable mmr and 50% constant winrate (measured over infinite amount of games) at the same time.
If you have wrong mmr (meaning you’re mismatched on your skill), then it’s impossible to win exactly half of your games (the only way for that to happen would be to have absolutely zero personal impact on the game, which is clearly not true even for tic-tac-toe) - you will by default win more (if your set-in-stone mmr is too low) or fewer (if mmr is too high) games forever (since mmr “doesn’t change”).
What actually happens is your winrate and mmr eventually converge (winrate moves towards 50% as you approach a number correctly representing your proficiency at the game) . There’s actually very little that could be done to even prevent this (obviously preventing the actual goal of the system is not something anyone would ever want to do). You could make the process slower or faster, but making mmr invariable is the only way to stop you from reaching the true number that represents your skill level (but, as I said, then the winrate would never be 50% - it would fall somewhere in the spectrum between ‘stomping’ or ‘getting stomped’). E.g., if you’re a master-level player with invariable bronze mmr, you would win somewhere in the ballpark of 90% of your games (well at least I do) forever. And even if everyone were given random invariable mmr numbers (hence the matching would be essentially completely random), then only the absolutely average player would have exactly 50% winrate; everyone better than average would have constant higher winrate, everyone below average would have constant lower winrate. And as that average player improves, his winrate would rise (instead of his mmr, which was invariable in this hypothetical situation) = still impossible to have both constant mmr and constant winrate.
Just so that you don’t get latched onto this incorrect hypothetical scenario - it has been proven to not be the case by anyone who have climbed ranks and witnessed his winrate dropping as a result (e.g., my both bronze+ smurfs had >90% winrate in bronze while I normally hover at 50% in dia-master (if mmr was invariable, then I would have >90% with any displayed rank (since that rank would be meaningless))

18

No, for settled accounts its nearly unmovable.

Look people, including myself, have tested this over and over. When i got this game, it was Alpha, i played it once in awhile for the novelty. I didnt get serious about til season 2, and by then i was pretty heavily entrenched in a bad place MMR wise, solid low silver. I improved. A lot. The game however still wants me to stay at silver-gold, though i’ve gotten as high as plat a few times, before it force-losses me back to sometimes high bronze even once or twice. THe matches in this MMR range are completely random, but it has set my account as so condifently anchored it will not move.

I have rolled two smurfs and easily low plat and was able to climb much more freely. But on accounts with no heroes/skins, i just cant get into it.

Its been tested. Blizzard has even admitted to them using vet accounts to “round out” noobie ones, so that the noobs can “learn from” the vets. They cant justify that very well with using high MMR accounts now can they? So why not anchor high level ones to an MMR so they can pretend they have some measure of reliability/validity?

Its been debunked man, and fanboi-ism (and im an avid blizzard fan), isn’t helping anything.

The game has desperately needed better matching for years. MMR at the game’s standard distribution of players has always been completely borked. Which for casual and average players is fine, no ones going to notice. For the people suck? Its literal hell.

I dont play like 11 Death 1st pick yolo Illidans anymore. Why do i still have to play with them.

Every.

Damn.

Game.

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19

We need a full reset with the following new aspects for next season:

  1. $10 to $20 fee to participate - at least smurfs will have to pay to play
  2. Character boundaries - There is enough information on the heroes to know what is acceptable statistics in a game. I propose setting limits on heroes and if you go over/under these limits you are instabanned for an hour/day. For example, you pick genji and die 10 times in a ranked match, a message pops up “You have been banned for 24 hours due to poor play, git gud!”. Or, you pick alarak and do under 25k dps, same thing, banned for a day. I know this will provoke selfish stat seeking, but I would rather have a person going in and trying not to die while doing dps, as opposed to an afk that walks into towers or sits in a bush.
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20

i dont think so atm i am 62-33 in TL i only play with 1 friend of mine he is a good supp main and he is atm gold 5 and i am diamond 5 so i yah it isnt a 50% win rate for me thus i stopped playing HL due to long queue times i was 8-10 to be honest i did my best in all my games even one of the games a stole a boss as medivh and the game ended up a lose due to a bad team comp the point is in TL i dont have 50%win rate but in HL i kinda have but its cuz i didnt play it to much last season i was plat 2 HL but as i said i am plat 5 now and i will be honest i mightv never get to Diamond 5 this season if not for my good supp friend and good team work and drafting cuz good draft and team work will give u the best results

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I actually think this is genius

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The cosmic horror of Forced 50% exists to weigh u down. Like i said many times Forced 50% has many forms, one form is Forced Carry another is Averaged MMR Pool, etc…

I think the only way to break from the chain is to play a hard carry tank role every single game, like stitches or diablo so you are shot calling every single game instead of depending on other players. Of course this is not foolproof, but its ur best chances.