In this season in SL:
Number of games: 320 (stacks aren’t a factor)
Win rate: 55%
Started at 2,850 MMR and Diamond 5(from decay).
Ended at 2,950 MMR and Master 1k.
The best players have 3,300 MMR, Master 10k and around 64% WR.
If I were to reach my true rank at 50% WR, which rank/MMR should I be?
How much more games would be required?
This is implying that I wouldn’t improve my skills much and still playing solo.
Additional info: I once reached 3,119 MMR in QM and my hero pool is diverse enough to not be banned out and be able to fill. I also reached 2k Master in SL in 2020 season 3, but only played 42 games.
My estimation is 3,050 MMR, Master 4k in 300 more games.
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I’ll look at this problem and try to come up with something (if I manage to). But seriously why do you have this kind of question? XD
Why would I want to know an estimation of my skill level without having to grind?
To satisfy my curiosity and quickly move on.
Grandmaster rank 1
Greatest player of all time
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I’d estimate master 0 would be my peak
I don’t think you can reach 50% that high, as you’ll occasionally be matched into unfair matches because reasons. I’d instead targeting plateauing out my rating.
Volatility is part of the deal, as well as some other factors like what do others play, how strong your current heroes are in the meta, and a fair bit of luck.
Like today, I started with a dominant match only to be stomped back to the ground, even though I justly reported a 55% winrate (!) OTP for non-participation. QM was sad as well, even though I could say it was unfair ranks on top of unfair.
At my rank, about 49% winrate is fairly good. Most OTPs plateaued bronze at 55-60% winrates, though. I don’t suppose all of them log off so much (I’ve seen a 98% winrate person in QM once. Curiosity of the matter, he wasn’t on a win streak and it wasn’t a leaver match.)
Around my rank about 1000 points equals 1-10% winrate, depending. I guess you’ve seen my funny posts over the months. With my strongest heroes I made it to plat-worthy, up from 65%-ish. I mean, check my heroes page (or yours).
Problem is, on one hand you could say over 500 matches it evens out, then again it takes 13 unlucky matches to be Silver instead of Plat, 5200 points, so it’s hard to say what you would achieve.
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Not really. When you know GM#1 and #2 in EU are both wintraders.
I understand that my points are volatile. Win streaks and loss streaks happen.
it takes 13 unlucky matches to be Silver instead of Plat, 5200 points
It’s 2,600 tps (13x200) and you’ll still be around your rank. ±2,000 pts should be the norm in a stable performance.
Now, I only need 10 more wins to achieve the 4k Master.
Can I reach 7k? It’s possible, but I would need a combination of luck and improvement, which isn’t the point of the OP.
As for the Meta shift, I don’t really mind. My mains are around 60% WR even if the average players are far worse.
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I’ve been testing google spreadsheet to give me a polynomial (2) equation of my MMR trend.
With 353 games, it goes like this: 2864 + 0.325(X) + -8.54E-05(X)^2
At 600 games, my MMR would be 3028 and at 900 games, it would be 3087. 
R^2 (Coefficient of determination) = 0.835, which is reliable enough, at least more than most published papers that are accepted as the “truth”.
When rehgar and Ana were op and in need of nerfs I got to diamond 2. That was about my peak performance. I think now i can maintain mid diamond with my best heroes, but i’m not getting to masters.
You could grind the ladder with Alexstrasza W build and Stukov. They’re somewhat hard to master, but the results are incredible when you don’t absolutely need a cleanse.
My highest rank was 4k master. Got it by playing either solo (in 35% games) or in party (in 65% games (I’m team player)).
I could stay in master for seasons alone, then I just stopped to care about it (had no one to play with, didn’t enjoy it).
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I find it hard to keep interested as seasons really shouldn’t be 6 months long or sometimes even longer.
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Dont worry. People like Fan also mention it so you are not alone in it. He even gave up trying to reach higher ranks on his first B-M account this season cause games in master right now are a hell hole. Games are getting dull and game quality falls down the drain so he started a second account that he is in gold with now.
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The truth is, Fan is playing dono requests, yet like most people, he still wants to win and have fun even though he wants money. It’s not fun for him to play an “F tier” hero with a bad build, but it’s more tolerable to win against lower MMR players. His opinion on the ladder is biased by this factor.
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Oh no, the panty draw replay stalker strikes again.
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