The conspiracy theories of "rigging" and the irony of it all

Community Discussion
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The typical conspiracy theory paints a picture that the Devs went out of their way to micromanage every single play and card draw and matched opponent every singe round and every single game and every single matchmaking; even if that was automated and even if the Devs went over the extreme mathematics to do it (unlikely) and even if they had the massive hardware resources to do it (unlikely) it would still not work; the third parties would simply catch the rigging within a day of collecting stats because those are all very blatantly obvious data in public.

Now the big irony is there is a conspiracy theory that would work but it doesn’t cross their mind because of the way their mind works; the rigging could just be that the MMR is raised so it gives you harder opponents and I mean that could be done even unfairly so it would be literal rigging (because third parties don’t have a view of all games to determine the hidden MMR); but it doesn’t cross their mind ..because they simply can’t fathom that better players than them exist.

tl;dr: the conspiracy theorists think they are the best players in the world, and because of that the best conspiracy theories fly over their head.

PS Reminder that “Carnivore” with ~53 posts, is a racist who got their real account permabanned, and made a sockpuppet account to continue their abuse because I was the victim of their attacks.

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Many years back after doing an update to their iPhones people were complaining that their battery life seems to be smaller and smaller. People were calling them “theorists” as well. We all know the truth now.

I just hope i still care when they dig up what Buzzard is doing nowadays, but i prolly wont.

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That’s conspiracy theorists for you.

In order to explain their lack of success, they need to find someone to blame, other than themselves. They often think they are smarter or better than everyone else, and when the facts get in the way of that, they make up a BS narrative that explains why that happens. They then feel superior to all the “sheeple” who haven’t got the “intelligence” to figure it out for themselves.

That’s the thing about conspiracy theories. They are usually based on suspicion rather than evidence. These theories can be investigated, and if evidence is found to support the theory, you can prove something, and it is no longer a conspiracy theory. There have been many conspiracy theories, and many conspiracy theorists have tried to prove them to be real. Most of them fail.

Its OK to be suspicious, but evidence is required. If a person suspects wrongdoing, then the burden of proof is on them to prove wrongdoing is happening, not on the accused party to prove that it isn’t.

This game is 12 years old, and has been plagued by accusations of RNG rigging since it started, but, despite third party data gathering, there is no evidence that it happens.

For people who genuinely believe the game is rigged… why do you continue to play it? Why not just walk away?

Maybe its because that would be admitting that you’re wrong, and since you’re so superior to all the sheeple, that can’t be true. So you must be right.

Its circular reasoning.

Of course, you wouldn’t admit to that, so you might have a different explanation for sticking with a game you believe is cheating. You might even believe your alternative explanation.

But why would anyone voluntarily choose to be cheated? Make it make sense…

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I usually dismiss the typical rigging theory because of the OP reasons and I also don’t believe my own conspiracy theory from the OP (or I see no evidence of that),

but I do see something being possibly shady though it’s not necessarily outside the “normal and expected” ways an MMR algorithm should work.

I suspect the MMR stays high after a month’s reset until you play a few dozen games even if you lost a bunch of games/with a low win rate.

To be fair the Devs have almost confirmed it, because they had said that your peak MMR can’t be tanked (to avoid smurfing).

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Is it that crazy to think there is some bonus applied for draw based on wins and losses. Its common in other games. They dont have to micro manage each match to apply a bonus.

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Its quite possible that there is “something shady” about the game’s MMR, and the fact that the devs have never told us how MMR works really doesn’t help with that. Its not possible to tell if the MMR is working as expected if we don’t know how its supposed to work. I’d very much like to see us get transparency on MMR.

But those concerns are with the MMR system, not with RNG in a match.

Draw?

If you replace “draw” with “matchmaking”, Its not crazy at all. In fact, I’d be surprised if MMR doesn’t take account of such factors.

But it should only affect matchmaking, and never in-game effects such as interfering with cards drawn or RNG card effects.

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Its actually insanely simple math.

Your deck has 70% win rate vs shamans.

You get matched vs less shamans.

Your deck loses 70% of the time vs mages. You get matched with mages when you’re on a roll.

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they are like children who only played agaisnt people who let them win all games making them unable to handle losing

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It’s really cringe how they come out with rancid/isolated anecdotes and want to make them seem like definitive arguments, as if it were an intellectual uno reverse.

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The closest I’ve seen are the statements here https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/hearthstone/t/faq-ranked-mode-overhaul-matchmaking/27937

eg referring to what I said earlier

Q: If I “tank” my MMR at certain rank floor, will I be matched with easier opponents next season because you are matchmaking by MMR at the start?

A: No, in general you won’t. At the start of the season we will recover your MMR to certain threshold if it is dropped below that value, which is based on what your rank is in the previous season. Therefore, there would be no benefits to intentionally tank your MMR.

That indirectly but clearly says they do anti-smurfing. It’s most probably why I can’t seem to get easier opponents unless I play a few dozen games every month (even if I was losing for a few games); they probably keep your peak MMR steady for while or at least they drop it very slowly at the start; I know that that FAQ is about the end of a month but it’s unlikely it doesn’t also apply to the start because then smurfing would be done at the start of the month and they wouldn’t want that either obviously.

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You’re missing the point. Rigging doesn’t have to be blatant or statistically obvious to exist. Small tweaks in matchmaking or probability can tilt outcomes without leaving clear traces. Saying “it would be detected instantly” ignores how subtle bias works.

Also, dismissing critics as people who “can’t accept better players exist” is a strawman. Most aren’t denying skill gaps—they’re questioning whether the system itself is consistently fair. That’s a valid concern, not arrogance.

And your own admission that unfair MMR manipulation would count as rigging undermines your argument. The debate isn’t about whether rigging is possible—it’s about whether it happens. Without transparency from developers, suspicion is rational, not conspiratorial.

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That’s still extremely complex if you don’t understand the algorithmic nightmare (and the hardware resources too if you managed to go through the algorithmic nightmare (you won’t)).

And it’s still extremely easy to be detected by third parties collecting stats so it’s still dead in the water if you did manage to do it.

They can detect “small”[1] things if they have a lot of data.

[1] If they can’t, it means it didn’t matter.

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The idea that Hearthstone isn’t rigged ignores too many patterns players experience daily. Matchmaking often pairs you against decks that directly counter yours, which feels far beyond coincidence. The RNG mechanics consistently swing games in ways that benefit one side disproportionately, suggesting hidden weighting rather than pure randomness. Blizzard has every incentive to keep players frustrated enough to spend money, so denying manipulation seems naïve. Calling it “conspiracy theory” dismisses real evidence from countless players who notice the same trends. If so many of us independently reach the same conclusion, maybe it’s not paranoia — maybe the system is designed that way.

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And you ignore, confirmation bias (especially from players who have the impression they are the best player in the world and they can’t possibly lose supposedly).

Also one day is a terrible sample size because it’s usually a dozen games and you can’t have any kind of statistical reliability without at least ~100 matches.

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Why even discuss this? Carnibore and Boreass are never going to NOT take a pro-dev stance, so what are you other guys expecting? I mean, one of them literally started the post just to bait you out!

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Dear carnivore (just read the posts to understand that he is paid by Blizzard), here we are not the ones who have to prove that the game is not manipulated and that what is supposed to be random is random, but Blizzard, there is no point in deleting my posts, the truth is this, Blizzard should allow an independent and accredited audit firm with experts capable of checking the code like they do for online gaming companies, only this has NEVER happened… why? How come if I create a brand new account, or change regions and start from scratch in the basic arena, I find opponents with invincible decks in the first round and very expensive skins? Am I perhaps an arena expert? No, I just started (maybe), where is the balanced MMR? It doesn’t exist, maybe Blizzard knows that a new player, if they lose the first arenas, is inclined to try to pay a couple of dollars to try again and multiplying by 1 million people, it becomes 2 million dollars? No? And why shouldn’t they? They can do it by contract, we all accepted it…

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I literally came back from a ban, for being “disrespectful to the Devs”.

I just have a smarter rigging conspiracy theory (read the OP again).

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those numbers mean nothing
there are many antivaxers out there but that doesnt prove their arguments

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the tinfoil club always says it isnt random and so far they couldnt livestream thesmelsves predicting every single outcome

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