Someone want to explain Dr. Boom frequency?

In the last two weeks I have played only two games, that I recall, against any warrior where Dr. Boom did not appear in the first ten rounds. In one of those two games I think that board pressure kept the opponent from playing Dr. Boom. AI.RNG is out of control. It was always bad, but this is shameless. It is clearly promoting a marketed deck. Causing 2 weeks worth of games to skew this way? Seriously?

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10 turns starting second is 14 cards drawn. If they play shield block or a project/ Harrison. That’s could be another 5 cards drawn. Some even run acolyte of pain which draw even more cards. So in 10 turns there is about a 60-70% odds of drawing Dr boom. Not very surprising

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Depends on the OPs deck as well. I’ll assume your #s are right but if he is playing a class where the warrior needs Boom ASAP it is even higher due to the ability to hard Mulligan’s for it.

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I appreciate your replies guys, but we are talking about 30+ games against warrior in the past two weeks. Warrior games take the longest. Most games run only 6-12m. I might play 2-4 hours or most of the day on the weekend. I did not play every day. Sometimes I played the solo adventures. I will guess that, at least, half of the days in the past two weeks were spent in ranked matches, so seven days. Also, warrior has a high play rate atm. We are talking 25+ games if everything averaged out, but sensibly that number is higher due to the current meta. That actual number of games versus warrior was probably closer to 50. Reasonably assuming it was ~50 games, even at an 80% chance I should have seen ten games without Dr. Boom by turn 10. Yet I saw two. Again, one appeared to be because of board pressure.

It will be nice if you have record of all 50 games mentioned. Not doubting you, but human brain have the tendency of over stating facts, especially on negative outcome. We tend not to rmb the times RNG favour us compared to the times RNG is against us. Coupled with certain self belief, we notice certain occurence alot more. Of cuz, with a small number of games played, (50 isnt alot) the variance can be bigger for any said numbers.

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^This the human brain tries to see patterns in everything, which makes sense for survival.

You see black clouds a little time later there is a thunderstorm.
Brain: Black clouds mean thunderstorm go to safety.

Boom is in the top half of the opponents deck 3 games in a row which is a 12.5% chance of occuring.
brain: Boom is always in the top half.

TLDR our brain is awesome for survival and recognizing patterns but Fing awful at accepting something as completely random, especially if it is unlikely.

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If we add a hard mulligan for Mad Genius, the Warrior going second will see up to 4 more cards.

While Mad Genius is a singleton due to its Legendary status, you can compare the situation somewhat to the chance of Secret Paladin having Mysterious Challenger on curve (also a fairly high likelyhood). It did happen fairly frequently and there were threads about Secret Paladin always having it on 6, even if they usually wanted to mulligan for a curve play and preferred not to see Challenger until turn 4+.

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Yep this too. I know people tend to keep boom in mulligan hand but I am not sure about hard mulliganing for it

Because 10 rounds + potential carddraw is hell’a deep into both player’s decks - what do you expect?

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This is keywords.:man_teacher:

It’s actualkly an interesting area of game design, because “truly random” rng (I put Truly Random in quotes because absolutely purely random numbers are quite difficult to generate I think) often feels “unfair” to players and in many games random events are actually rigged to make them seem more “fair”(i.e. critical hits in dota2 )

The only real way to find out if something is rigged is to keep meticulous records over lots and lots of games, something that is beyond the scope of all but the most dedicated (you need to find a third party recording system, other folks to contribute results, proper statistical analysis etc).

However some of these resources already exist , and I’m sure at least one of the stat tracking sites would have picked up if Dr Boom was being drawn more consistently than he should be, the chances are you either forgot some times he wasn’t played or faced an unusual variance in rng over your relatively small sample size.

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Pretty much, plus those alterations usually are most common in games that are very heavily RNG dependant. One game which uses it for fact is XCOM and if you played the harder difficulties you know how frustrating it can be.

But as you said in games with a lot of population especially competitive games with any pvp the data masses quickly and is also tracked extensively so outliers would show quite quickly.

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Lost two games recently because Dr. Boom was in the last three cards and didn’t draw him in the first 20 cards multiple times…

Even if we ignore things like conformation bias, it’s just bad luck on your side.

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Truly random doesn’t look random to most humans who lack experience with truly random patterns.

Gambler’s Fallacy exists for a good reason:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Also, home computers (and most servers) have issues doing true random, the pseudo-random we get from various Random Number Generators is still good enough for the vast majority of uses.

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You are also using your recolection rather than a hard data set.

Even then, unlikely events still occur. That dosen’t make them not random events.

Just means you need a bigger sample size.

At the end of the day, Dr. Boom hitting the field by turn 10 is likely to happen (more often than not it will be found by then, even more so when mulliganing for it)

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play the deck yourself, you’ll be heavily disappointed to find out how little he shows up

I dusted most old cards, because wild is not my style. Then I bought “rise of shadow” cards that initially appeared to be enough to allow me to ignore having to play against cards from expansions that made me quit twice. Most insufferable are the mechs. I was very happy with my collection after buying the new “rise of shadow” cards, but it was not enough to ignore mechs. That feeling led to dusting everything. In total I have uninstalled three times this expansion because of the accumulation of awful design decisions, but reinstalled. Other card games do not offer the same level of aesthetic appeal. At this point I play to get in the last hurrahs before soon avoiding the card game genre entirely. So no, I won’t play the deck myself. I do not want to play with or against mechs. That expansion is the epitome of bad design imo.

Since all warriors hard mulligan for Dr. Boom it is almost a certainty that they will have it on 7 or 8. It is such a OP card that it can be held in hand from turn 1 and still win Warriors the game. Look at the stats on HSreplay — the rush from this card needs to go ASAP. It is completely OP.

Yep, without mulligan (at all), never drawing an extra card, and also going first, a warrior has a 43% chance to have Dr. Boom by turn 10.

Going second and mulligan hard for Dr. Boom? a 54% chance to have it by then without any additional card draws.

In either case, it is a card that you should expect to see in a warrior matchup, as by the time it would be hitting the field, it is pretty likely to be in hand (somewhere between 42 and 53% if no other card draw is used in the match).

One tough thing to grasp is that even rare events (such as seeing a Dr. Boom on turn 7-10 every game for a streak of 10 games) does not mean that the random card draw in the game is broken. Sometimes random events appear very not random. Sometimes rare, highly unlikely things occur. Someone often wins the Powerball lottery, even though the odds are around 1/300 million. Sometimes, you are just the lucky (unlucky) person to go through a string of 10-20 coin flips not working in your favor. A 50% chance of something happening does not mean that for every set of 10 games, half of them will have each outcome. In order to get that 50% chance through observation, you’d need a fairly large sample of games (100+, although you are really looking for more like 10k to FIRMLY say that it was a 50% chance) with accurately recorded draw data.

Long story short: The card draw mechanics are likely working just fine, you are either just very unlucky here, or misremembering, or a combination of both.

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Dr Boom has the 3rd highest mulligan win rate.

The Warrior is actively looking for it, thus its early appearance is increased by mulligan choice.