As we head into the weekend, we didnāt want to leave your Black Market feedback unanswered.
We hear you, and we understand the frustration with unlucky streaks of price increases stacking up day after day. The earning period of the event runs until October 6th, so thereās still plenty of time to earn more Bloodstones and for prices to average out. Even if luck hasnāt been on your side, keep an eye on the final stretch of the event. If youāve been playing alongā¦ you might imagine our mysterious Black Market vendor will be anxious to lighten their inventory. The haggling phase is also designed to give you another chance at the items youāre chasing.
Your feedback is important to us and weāre working on a set of improvements to the Black Market in an future patch that address many of the concerns youāve shared. Weāll have more to share closer to that patch.
Thanks for all the feedback, and have a great weekend!
To be able to get stuff by just playing the game is always nice. This is much more player friendly than the DM Faire.
The bugs were unnecessary and are still occuring. I just bought a card pack and had to close the game and restart to get it.
Also the percentages should be applied to a fixed base price of an item and not on the current price. The way the prices can explode is quite discouraging.
I would hope that future events similar to this are SERIOUSLY reconsidered, given what you now know of our feelings regarding this style of engagement.
I have been actively playing LESS as a direct result of seeing the items go wildly out of control. Most of the days the event has been active, I havenāt even played a SINGLE game to earn currency because itās made me BITTER at it.
āWhy should I even bother trying at all?ā
This and adjacent thoughts have run through my mind enough times that now that youāre actually looking at adjusting things, thereās even FURTHER annoyance in the sense of āwell, Iām too far behind now, so AGAIN, why should I even bother?ā
If you extended the time of the event we could earn currency by even 3 or 4 days, it would earn a tremendous amount of goodwill to weigh against the rather slow reaction youāve had in responding to player feedback.
The way the percentage changes work really encourage you to prioritize the highest cost items first, since those have the worst potential to fluctuate or increase in price over a short time.
According to the current system, prices tend to decrease over time. For example, the signature card costs 4,200. If it rises by 10% in a day, it will cost 4,620. If the price then drops by 10%, it will cost āonlyā 4,158.
Perhaps, itās possible to rule out further significant price increases when prices have already risen sharply? For example:
Current price is 10% above the base price. The next price adjustment is only possible from -15% to +14%.
Current price is 50% above the base price. The next price adjustment is only possible from -15% to +10%.
Current price is 100% above the base price. The next price adjustment is only possible from -15% to +5%.
Hopefully black market becomes permanent later on. Been playing more ranked now that ever before. Game losses are not nearly as rough, win or lose, at least itās working towards something. Prize pool seems to be same for all players, but would be cool if one of the reward slots gets a re-roll option for each player to refresh into a new random reward.
This is mathematically incorrect. They may never average out. Look at this random walk simulation of the Black Market how they can completely go out of control the more you wait: https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/1wpqe6i/i_made_a_random_walk_simulation_of_the_black/
For me, the signature Fordring started around just above 4k if I recall.
Now itās at 7171. Iām fine with fluctuations, but that seems to be too much imo. At this rate, if I can manage to grab him, who know if thereās any blood left to grab any of the other goodies by the time it ends.
They can easily tweak the algorithm behind the scenes to force it to average out. For all we know it started that way and was always going to even out.
That wasnāt the statement. The said it will average out if you give it time. They probably believe itās like flipping a coin multiple times and eventually getting an average of 0.5 due to the Law of large numbers.
The problem is that the Law of large numbers works for the average of ALL gamers but most gamers will usually drift to a very small number and a few gamers will drift to a very large number.
The math of it is complicated but essentially because a percentage impacts a number more going down than up: most players will converge to low numbers and a few to very high numbers.
If they say theyāre going to tweak it, or that it was pre-tweaked, people scream about rigging. I donāt know if thatās what they did or will do. Iām just saying itās a possibility. No need for a lecture.
In any case so that this āworkā isnāt lost when we forget about it, hereās some simulation results with a starting value of 100 and 16 steps (assuming 16 changes of prices) and 1 million players:
Walkers simulated: 1000000
Max final value: 434.19
Min final value: 16.82
Median final value: 93.93
Average final value: 99.96
We see here that the most unlucky gamers will go up to ~400% higher price but most will drop to small values with the average being exactly 100 and the median slightly lower than that.
You have absolutely no idea what the odds are for increases or decreases, nor the odds for the amount of the change. You canāt do calculations that matter.
The burden of proof is on you, because the complicated case is the extraordinary case. If we know nothing we can assume the changes are random between -15%,-14%,.. and ..14%,15%.
Fordring at 8175 today. Even with the bloods Iāve worked toward getting, that still puts me at 4000+ away, which is what he was on day 1 when the event started, so in essence, Iām not making any progress. Help me make this make sense. What is it youāre trying to achieve?
