Can someone do the maths for me?

First, some background: I usually buy the big bundle for each expac. However, COVID has hit my family pretty hard, financially, and it’s hard, this time to justify spending the money on a game (and before you start, please don’t make this a thread about spending money on the game… that’s not the point), so I’ve made the decision to not buy any preorders.

I am currently sitting on about 8500 gold and about 4000 dust. I usually use my purchased packs and some “gold” purchased packs at the beginning of each expansion. The real money purchase allows me to hold onto about 3000 gold for any adventures that come along during the season.

My question: In the past, people have posted about the mathematical point of “diminished returns” when it comes to pack opening. Seeing as math is not my strongest suit, can someone share this again, so I can get the most “bang for my in-game buck”?


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I’m not sure what the relative breakpoint is anymore with triplicate protection on commons/rares/epics now, but I believe they mentioned that all PvE adventures this year are all free, so that may impact your decision to sit on gold if you can just dump it all into packs with no worries.

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If you’re not in a good financial situation I would advise against spending money on any of the bundles.


if you get like 60 packs your will have every rare and common. I think you need another 140 to get them all. counting dust to craft.


There’s 35 rare cards in the set, so you will likely have all of the commons and rares after getting 65 packs or so. (Min 1 rare or better, sometimes more) after that, every 20 packs is going to average 4 epics and 1 legendary and some dust.


I don’t know what the actual breakpoint is, but with triplicate protection, after around 60 packs you will have a complete set of Commons and Rares from the set, so anything left would be additional Epics and Legendaries. So, at that point, your actual gain from additional packs falls off pretty sharply, since a good portion will just be dust, aside from the occasional epic or legendary.


I usually go for the arbitrary 5 Legend Pull cut off. That’s usually 80-100 packs, sometimes more if the pack expansion is strong or I pull Legends quickly and early on.

For you, I would drop all 8500 and just save up till the next expansion. If you play diligently and earn about 80 gold per day every day, you’ll have somewhere around 10k gold come December when the third expansion rolls around.

No need to spend more than that unless since most of the value beyond that point is Redundant and for dust acquisition.


Yeah, this is probably the route I’m going to go, especially if, as Drum said, the Adventure Is free. I love opening packs. It’s like Christmas in August!

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I find opening packs to be really for for like the first 20 or 30, then start getting bored lol

Apart from those 85 packs from gold, you’ll get 6 from the initial quests. 91 packs total plus your 4000 dust should work fine - with the free legy at login and the one guaranteed within the first 10 packs you’ll have at least 4 legendaries (2 times pity timer), but prolly 1-2 more.

Good luck and all the best to you & family!


The only time I say that opening packs is worth despite greatly diminished returns is if the epics are worth it. Epics, though cheaper than Legendaries, are harder to fill since they’re usually necessary cards in one or two decks while many Legendaries can span across multiple decks.

Epics can really sink your dust reserves, and it’s usually worth that diminished returns if there are enough epics all around to pull without spending 400 on each copy.

I would just add that this is the best advice you can receive.

Additionally, the breakpoint I have calculated is roughly 35-40 packs. There is some variance and it can be as high as ~70 packs.

This is very true and should be easier now, as every epic pulled that you don’t want increases the odds of pulling the one(s) you do by X%, unlike before.

Having 8 copies of that crappy neutral epic we all knew wouldn’t see play was a very tilting experience.

Just to be clear, because I’m not sure I was in my initial post, I am NOT spending money this go ‘round. That was the whole reason behind the original post.

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I think folks took the difficulty in justifying spending as you making an earnest effort to justify it. Might be worth an edit before you get more folks stating the obvious - don’t break a slim bank on luxury hobbies lol


Do all your dailies, reroll all 50 Gold Quests if you don’t play just one class, and win one to three games a day, only 30 minutes required but you can always play more. Don’t ever buy packs in middle of the expansion (unless you are really bad at using your Gold) always do a big one at the beginning to ensure you maximize your resources for the new meta. Play Arena if you have drafting experience, don’t do it one shot or you will end up losing too much and don’t actually earn much. Always save 3000+ Gold every expansion or you will be behind on resources. And most important of all, play every single day, even if it’s just one game.

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F2P should be possible for your case. You should consider it going forward?

The above article maybe a bit outdated but still useful.

Change lifestyle choices due to life changes can be very hard. Keep the Faith.

You don’t get the bang for your buck. You just shoot yourself in the foot. Not to mention the rapid obsolescence that blizz practices when the community whines.

Buy packs with gold, disenchant, then craft what you want.

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Legendary per pack chance has gone WAAAAAAY down lately. 70ish is closer to the truth than the 30-40 it used to be. And where did that one guy get a legendary per 20 packs? Must be nice daydreams he has…

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Join the cult of SrChatto. Call every game with micro transactions loot box scams. And praise Legends of Runterra to the universe out loud. I will be listening :slight_smile:
But your comments barely affects the revenue, only 1% uses the forums, and more people will buy and HS will earn more money regardless of how the community, especially your kind, feels.

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