I’ll preface this with I have the worst luck with RNG in games, especially Blizz products. I literally think they have my name hardcoded to bad RNG.
BUT, at some point you have to wonder, is it really really really bad luck, or is it a bug. I’m starting to think their random generator is bugged.
The Scenario:
Been playing against a lot of wars lately, and I’m playing the aggro decks trying to win before Brann. Most of these aggro decks quickly build up a wide board, 4+ minions. One of the many methods the war uses to clear my board is Brawl.
The last 6 out of 7 times the warrior has cast Brawl on me, their lone minion wins the brawl against my boards ranging from 4 to 7 minions.
This feels so unlucky that it must be a bug in the code, right?
No matter how many times you’ve just rolled a 6, the odds of the next roll being a 6 are 1 in 6.
People erroneously believe that random numbers should be evenly distributed, which of course, would not be random at all.
I feel like that’s incorrect, but I could be wrong. I was actually a math major, however stats was my weakest subject and it’s been years since I practiced.
The odds of rolling consecutive 6s diminishes with each roll. So, the probability of rolling 6 seven times in a row is much less likely than two times in a row.
So the number of matches matters. To lose the Brawl in six straight games should be highly unlikely, when you have 5 minions to their 1.
There is also the warrior minion which casts brawl and always wins if the warrior has excavated twice
I’m only talking about the spell.
The other would fall under the same odds if they haven’t excavated twice, but I don’t always pay attention to if they have or haven’t, so not mentioning it.
EDIT: I will say I did wonder if the spell is bugged due to the minion - Brawl (spell) always wins if they’ve excavated twice even though it shouldn’t.