Hearthstone trade-secret is an algorithm that increases the likelihood of unlikely outcomes…
Say there’s four possible outcomes and the unadjusted probabilities for each is in the following set:
- Outcome A: 50%
- Outcome B: 25%
- Outcome C: 24%
- Outcome D: 1%
Upon Hearthstone ‘events’ (e.g. drawing a card, battlegrounds combat phase), the server will calculate run n simulations and estimate probabilities for each possible outcome. The server will then adjust the likelihood of each outcome per pre-determined parameters and then select.
Typically, chances for low probability outcomes are greatly increased. Back to our example, the server may return the four outcomes with adjusted probabilities:
- Outcome A:
50%25% - Outcome B: 25%
- Outcome C:
24%25% - Outcome D:
1%25%
Why? Because it elicits a greater emotional response from the player base when unlikely outcomes occur and influence the ultimate outcome of the match. More so, it makes the game more addicting. Supposedly this is regarded by the company as their “secret sauce” or “priority advantage” versus other similar games.
My source is an ex-Blizzard software developer who recently separated from Activision-Blizzard following the numerous scandals