13 loss streak 1 star away from legend

Sometimes you gotta view the slot machine for what it is. Outcomes you can’t control. Only thing you can control is when to pull the lever, and when to walk away.


Their random and the stuff that falls from my backside smell suspiciously similar.

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Shhhhh… don’t worry about it. At least you got your D1 back.

True, but that lever is MENACING.

So, have you done the testing and discussed your results with Schyla yet to look for any anomalies?

The first couple losses were probably random luck. Then the tilt factor kicked in and piled on probably.

What ever the matching and draw is?
It sux.

I was hovering around D4-D5 switching around different decks, mainly playing for fun. One day a week ago I started with Silver Hand Paladin and won 3 in a row. Then for a whole week I actually had very good results with that deck, winning 4, losing 3 etc., but steadily going up all the way to D1 over the week. The 13 loss streak happened with the same deck.

Can’t say I tilt really, only WTF Facepalm after Sire D etc. :smiley:

Exactly, it’s all RNG. But someone pointed out that the odds of 13 loss streak are less than 0.01%. And I had a huge 10 or so loss streak around 3 weeks ago that started in a similar way, only I was @ D6 trying to get into D5 bracket… Looks like a pattern, I had a thread about it, it’s not the first time for me - it happens every time for the past 3 months or so. But the thread got removed :slight_smile:

Would be great if they fixed the algorithm, it’s too obvious. Or i’m just super “lucky” getting 0.01% probability events couple times every month - when I’m about to break into the next bracket.

Anyway, some great responses here!

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Whatever happens, and whatever your theories are, you can always count on fellow victims supporting you here.

Dude seemingly frequently gets on 10+ loss streaks.
“The odds are so low! Must be an algorithm!”

Yeah. Right. There’s a common factor there.

Perhaps skill is a larger factor than he admits, but he isn’t wrong in that the matching acts peculiar around tier thresholds.

There’s exactly 0 proof of that.

And there is equal proof that the OP is a bad player but for your claim, yet you were happy to toss it out there.

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Well let’s not forget that there should be at least another 100 players in the same boat. I’m surprised they’re not here posting as well. Imagine the fervour if 0.01% of a million players posted here when something unlikely happened.

Are we sure this is not a “learn to play” issue?

Not necessarily entirely a skill issue, but that is absolutely playing a part. Skill is quite nonlinear in Hearthstone in that a player will have differing levels of skill not just between each deck they play, but also each deck they face. Having holes in your matchup knowledge can lead to massive downswings if you face a wide variety of matchups, as is generally the case in this meta.

Tilt is also almost certainly a factor in this. Losing a game when you’re a win off of Legend is frustrating enough. Losing two or three in a row significantly more so. These losses compound upon one another and can cause a player’s mood to get worse and worse, leading to erratic, emotion-influenced play and poor decisions. Tilt can also influence a player to rage-concede unnecessarily after the smallest inconvenience. I’ve seen people concede immediately after I’ve played a minion on turn 1 or a power card on curve. Prematurely conceding is probably one of the biggest win rate killers in the whole game.

If the probability of winning/losing each game was exactly 50/50, the argument that a 13 streak is extremely astronomically unlikely would hold, but this is not the case when you factor in skill, matchups and tilt (throw rage-concedes into the mix as well). I’d be really interested to see how much tilt cumulatively affects the average player’s win rate as they they lose multiple games from Diamond 1 ***. I imagine it is quite significant for an awful lot of people.

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If they were the only player. 1/8192 is not that rare when you multiply it by a million players.

Tilt does not account for unfavorable matching in so many instances of tier threshold play.
I have seen the same phenomena as the OP describes repeatedly, and I even experienced it on the same day.
I reached Diamond 1, and suddenly three of five matches were against the one deck that beats mine most of the time.
Tilt does not account for that.
Like I have said: Supposedly MMR is based on elo systems for Chess.
I played competitive Chess, and when you reach the final group you do not always get matched against the guy who beat you in every tournament you entered for the past few years.


Funny I hit D1 and got an easy 3 matches

And that’s great, but it does not prove anything, and neither does my experience, except that whatever the matching is?
It could be far better.
elo based my foot.
I see things like this every month at every tier threshold.