Nope.
/20 characters
And anytime now you are gonna show us your work, right?
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Do you think this somehow invalidates peoples’ personal experience of rolling the same crappy outcome 3-4 times in a row every 2-3 temper sessions? The only thing your “work” attempts to achieve is to discourage blizzard from mitigating this disgusting system. Go count the layers of rng per item you statistic genius and think about how many times you have to get lucky in a row to get a workable item before posting another act of active player sabotage. How many hours on average does it take to finish gearing a toon to the standards that a non s tier build could do pit in the 60-70s or to reliably solo a tormented boss. Or are you gonna advocate people spend 200-300+ hours on a single toon per season?
Some claims made over some data may have confirmation bias
But all claims made with no data are plagued with confirmation bias
You dont need to belive the OP
No one needs to belive in you
All you (and anyone claiming anything) needs to do is to present your own data, make your conclusion over it and let people make their
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Completely different issue than what this post determines.
To get a workable item is exceptionally easy, much easier than it used to be. Im assuming you mean to get an item with multiple GAs and well rolled tempers, which is not a “workable item”. I have no issue with that being difficult.
Many, many, MANY builds can easily do 60-70s reliably with nothing more than 1GA items or less, and getting a 1ga item with a useable temper is not remotely difficult at all.
It makes no difference to me whether Blizzard changes the temper system or not; I have no vested interest in it staying as it is, or becoming easier. I just dislike when irrational loud noises attempt to overcome rationality and data.
Case in point; you claiming how “many layers of rng” there are in creating a workable item, despite the fact that there are now less “layers” than there used to be. Rolling affixes are always multiplicative with each other, and that is no different than it used to be. Your irrational brain tells you because there are more steps there are now more layers, but there aren’t - whether the game rolls the affix for you or you roll it for yourself, it has the same multiplicative effect on the likelyhood of the final item being what you want. And, of the layers that remain, they are magnitudally easier to succesfully complete than they used to be.
Ironically, if you were actually looking to “solve” the problem of difficult “perfect” items (not workable, but multiple GA items), you would aim your ire at the GA system, not the temper system. Getting a base item with multiple desirable GA stats is massively, MASSIVELY more difficult than rolling the right temper on that item once you have it. Like, by a factor of hundreds, possibly thousands.
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Well done! players like you make games great!
Now we need a masterworking crit study. As of right now, my biased mind is convinced there are stat weights… lol
I am expecting to be proven wrong after seeing your findings and then being really annoyed at my bad luck LOL.
Hey Blizz, MVP this guy.
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There is no chance of that happening, nor would I want it to. I’ve been banned many times from the forum and frequently call out nonsense that Blizzard does, as often as I defend them.
People wantonly call those who bemoan Blizzard whingers and those who support Blizzard shills, but I’m only interested in what is actually the case. There are plenty of things to complain about in regards to D4, there’s no need to invent new ones. Tempering is perfectly fine as it is, and would also be perfectly fine if it were made easier - the difference is one of balance only.
I have no issue with people who say they don’t like tempering and find it un-fun, as long as they don’t frame it as something other than a subjective opinion. From a framework of mathematical difficulty, everything about gearing today besides obtaining GA gear is monumentally easier than it was prior to season 4.
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Lets agree to disagree. FYI GAs came with the latest loot rework so they were NOT a concern in the old system. In addition the old blacksmith gave power equal to t12 masterworking basically for free. Finally the bar that items need to reach now is much higher than it were before. Lastly, seasonal themes gave a lot of player power in seasons 1-3. Please, do not respond to this, I see that we will not convince each other and I do not plan to engage further with you.
Just wondering if you recorded this experiment of yours?
There’s nothing to agree or disagree about; there are facts and there are falsehoods.
- GAs aren’t part of the equation of a workable item. As I said; it is extremely easy to get workable gear with 1 or less GAs and correct tempers, and with that alone you are so far ahead of previous seasons in power it’s not the same game. You do not need GA gear for anything in D4 today except for high tiers of the pit.
- The blacksmith gave nothing LIKE the amount of power that masterworking does today - not even close. First and foremost, this is because tempering affixes are overwhelmingly powerful compared to other affixes, and masterworking buffs tempered affixes too.
- Season 1-3 didn’t have tempering. Tempered affixes are far, far more powerful than almost anything available through previous seasons’ borrowed power systems.
I’m glad you don’t plan to engage with me, because you haven’t raised a valid point thus far. As I said; this isn’t any form of debate. We aren’t discussing anything subjective. We are discussing the amount of power given by specific and measurable mechanics, and what you are saying is objectively wrong.
Nope, but I gave you the tools to repeat it if you so desire - or you don’t even need them; anyone can use an excel sheet or a piece of paper.
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the old 5/5 upgrade at the blacksmith in no way was equal in power to masterworking btw. before at 5/5 you would go from +3-+4 skill. now you can get up to +7 from a +3.
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You’re basically asking the community at large to take your numbers and findings on faith then?
Excel, formulas and pieces of paper don’t necessarily equal nor equate to in-game Blizzmath. A company with a history of coding heavily weighted systems and this game in itself being rife with bad coding and endless bugs, imbalances, Occultist “favored rolls”(early on) etc etc.
Frankly though you should have researched a bit first and used a Class & Aspect that’s more likely to be(and complained about possibly being) weighted in the first place.
Try the experiment with FO casts 2x.
I did my own at the end of PTR with 47 Weapons when I hit a point where I was stumped as to why It never seemed to roll.
I got FO casts 2x Temper 3x(3 TIMES on 47 weaps) “no keepsies” - this was straight rolling and recording how many FO came up.
3 Times - no bad memory, confirmation bias or hallucinations. Just disgust.
This is why it’s the Season of Apathy for me. Not even bothering to mess with it more than the dozen hours or so I’ve invested.
imo - The system sucks and nobody - especially some random internet person, will convince me it’s NOT weighted without PROOF - in this case video evidence of their experiment.
Otherwise it’s quite possibly merely conjecture.
If you really DID do said experiment → well done.
Next time you attempt to “prove/disprove” something to a playerbase, especially something that’s a bone of much contention and debate - Record it. It’s 2024 after all.
g’nite
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I’m not asking you to take my word for it. You can literally do it yourself. That said, even if it were “take my word for it”, it’s not in the same fashion as anecdotal evidence. I told you my method, the options available to you are that I am either truthful or malicious.
You’re attributing to me malice with no particular justification as to why. What reason would you have to believe my recording any more than my data?
I tested a category relevant to me, because that’s what I care about. However, there is absolutely no reason to suspect that different categories behave differently; they almost certainly call the same functions to perform the task. Again; if you believe otherwise, it is beyond simple to test.
As I said in the original post, the data is enough to prove to all but the most hardy of tinfoil hats how the system most likely works. If you think I’m lying, the means to test for yourself is right there for the taking. If you think the data shows otherwise than my conclusion, you’re almost certainly wrong, but I await your results.
I have no need nor desire to provide video evidence for that which you can readily repeat yourself. If you’re not interested in data you’re not really the target audience of the thread. What the thread does do, however, is entirely rule out the optional of anecdotal misstep. Either you think I’m malicious, or your belief about the system is wrong. There is no middle ground.
I’m not even sure what your paragraph on excel etc means, but I think it equates to a misunderstanding on your part or perhaps a miscommunication on mine. You can do the same test as me, and record and tabulate the data yourself, without any special tools. What Blizzard does at that point is largely irrelevant; the data speaks for itself. Remaining angry at the unfairness of blizzard while the means to know for sure if they are actually guilty of what you believe is asinine.
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Dude, where is your recording of you testing 47 weapons?
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all these people asking for recordings are ridiculous. Thanks OP for actually investing the time and effort.
Id have assumed that they are a little weighted, but i guess its just the confirmation bias. with 4-5 options only its not really uncommon to roll the same thing multiple times.
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Hey @Soluss haven’t seen your test with your results, to prove OP wrong.
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I’m glad that OP chose rogue’s Cutthroat offensive temper manual for his experiment because this manual perfectly showcases the biggest issue I have with the current temper system.
The developer team removed conditional damage affixes on items, that was a good move, but they added not only conditional damage affixes back to temper manuals but also conditional crit chance and attack speed.
Even if the conditional crit chance and attack speed can be useful by stacking those with regular crit chance and attack speed to the cap, who in their right mind would like to use affix like Cutthroat damage that applies to only Cutthroat skills and doesn’t roll higher than vulnerable damage?
Not to mention Damage vs Close exists and rolls up to 85%, and it applies to all Cutthroat skills and other things like grenades or poison.
I really want to know what they were smoking when they designed temper manuals.
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It’s awsome you even had the patience to do this in the first place, and we thank you for this and your data. Still, I think although there are many people that think tha these are weighted, and your data shows it appears it is not, the next quote applies to the game.
The problem is the system balences itself in the long run, but you can only temper one item 7 times. As you said in your tests, you tempered the same pool over and over again (3k times). But that was done to show this system is not wieghted, which again, you data appears to demonstrate. In reality, you need to temper 1 item 2 times, and this is the reason people are bricking way too many items. The system itself, even though it appears is not weighted, still is bricking much more items than not.
The problem we’re having is too much RnG on top of RnG on top of RnG…
- Get the right item with at least 2 good affixes - not even considering items with GA, whether it be 1, 2, or 3 GA’s
- RnG to get the one temper we need - not mentioning getting the max value out of the temper
- RnG to get the another temper we need - not mentioning getting the max value out of the temper
- RnG to roll the third affixe we need - This can be ludacris still, even though we have less affixes…
- RnG to get the 1st masterwork we need
- RnG to get the 2nd masterwork we need
- RnG to get the 3rd masterwork we need
Speaking for myself, I always believed the affixes were not weighted, it would be too scuffed for them to be weighted. The problem is too much RnG systems that punish the player way more than they reward the player. For instance for me, I’m stuck since the beginning of this season trying to get my Rogue the way I need, and RnG has not been my friend (Also, I play on average from 1 to 2h a day, so that’s not much, but still…). I haven’t even thought about playing a different build or different class because this systems are too much time consuming to gear a class to push high pits, and I think that’s a problem.
Either way, great work on your test / show case! I know I wouldn’t have the patience to do it 
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This data is interesting, however, the problem is that we don’t have 3000 chances to temper.
What I mean is that there is a “chance” that I flip a coin, and I get heads 1000 times in a row. But if I try that same sample size, it will likely show that I got heads roughly 50% of the time.
I’d be more interested in the data if there were MULTIPLE attempts at 3000 tempers.
I literally came here because I just got done trying to temper a dagger with Frost Augments.
Here are my results (and this scenario had happened MULTIPLE times) when I saved 3 daggers with the right main stats I wanted.
1st dagger.
Free Roll: Blizzard Size
1st Roll: Blizzard Size
2nd Roll: Ice Shards
3rd Roll: Blizzard Size
4th Roll: Ice Bolts
5th Roll: Frozen Orb
Now, I am going Frozen orb for this build, so I was thankful, but I now only had ONE shot to get my second temper of Damage to Close Enemies. Think I got it??
Last roll on 2nd temper: Damage to distant.
So, not totally bricked…but I had two more daggers to try…Certainly I can get Frozen Orb to fall sooner and give me a chance on my second temper, RIGHT?
2nd Dagger:
Free Roll: Blizzard Size
1st Roll: Frost Bolt
2nd Roll: Frost Bolt
3rd Roll: Blizzard
4th Roll: Ice Shard
5th Roll: Ice Shard
Bricked.
But I have 1 more dagger…surely I can do it…
Free Roll: Blizzard Size
1st Roll: Blizzard Size
2nd Roll: Frost Bolt
3rd Roll: Frost Bolt
4th Roll: Frost Bolt
5th Roll: Blizzard size
Bricked.
So, with 18 rolls, I saw “Frozen Orb” show up 1 time.
This scenario has happened to me MULTIPLE times. Now if I had 32 more daggers to try, could they have evened out that bad run…maybe. But I shouldn’t have to do that.
The Algorithm IS weighted on PER attempt. It has to be.
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