video showing the tests or it didnt happen. the op is one of the loud trolls that just likes to stir up trouble but failed in debate clubs
If you roll 6 times on each of 10,000 tempers you get these results:
Weighting: 0
Success: 8268 (82.68%)
Failure: 1732
Weighting: +1
Success: 9513 (95.13%)
Failure: 487
Weighting: +2
Success: 9834 (98.34%)
Failure: 166
Weighting: +3
Success: 9943 (99.43%)
Failure: 57
Weighting: +4
Success: 9985 (99.85%)
Failure: 15
The same test with 7 rolls for 2 affixes gives these results:
Weighting: 0
Success: 5449 (54.49%)
Failure: 4551
Weighting: +1
Success: 8412 (84.12%)
Failure: 1588
Weighting: +2
Success: 9363 (93.63%)
Failure: 637
Weighting: +3
Success: 9713 (97.13%)
Failure: 287
Weighting: +4
Success: 9860 (98.60%)
Failure: 140
Interestingly, this shows that more than 54% of items will NOT brick if there’s 4 temper options in the current state of the live game.
Just adding +1 to the weighting has a significant difference though, and would probably be sufficient for most players.
I haven’t tracked it, but that 54% number seems about on par with my experience in tempering. That 46% failure rate does feel pretty unforgiving. I think you’re right that a lot of the complaints would go away with +1 weighting and only a 16% failure rate. I suspect Blizz will wait and see how the extra rolls on GA items goes before changing anything else though.
Thanks again for your work on this!
Edit: In thinking this over more, the biggest problem for me with a 46% failure rate is it becomes more attractive to sell a premium item than to keep it. I got 2 excellent 3GA drops I could have used on my wind shear Druid, and I sold them both. The gold felt more useful than a chance at using the items because the rate of bricking in tempering is so high.
I wrote a post a few days ago about what you’re discussing here, giving users a chance to control the probabilities of the affixes in their favor. Basically, I imagined having something called “temper dust” that would be farmable. This dust could be either a single type or multiple types to make it even more challenging (because Blizzard loves the grind). Anyways…
Proposal: Introduce “Temper Dust”
I propose the introduction of a new material called “Temper Dust,” which players can obtain from salvaging bad rolls, uniques, other gear with GA, dungeons, pit bosses, monsters, etc. This material would allow players to influence the probability of desired affixes appearing on their gear.
Let’s assume that each affix at the temper is weighted evenly. Here’s how it could work:
- Each affix is weighted evenly say at [0.25]. (for 4 affixes)
- Using 1 Temper Dust increases the probability of the desired affix by +[0.05].
- Players could use up to 5 Temper Dusts, increasing the maximum probability to [0.50] per temper roll.
I believe a system like this would give players a sense of control, making the tempering process less frustrating and more rewarding:
- Farm temper dust
- Apply temper dust to desired affix
- Get desired affix
- Farm more temper dust
If you enjoy gambling, then just don’t use the temper dust. Everyone is happy. Some RNG is good, but too much RNG is not.
My 2 cents. Cheers!
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I presume to call someone stupid if they choose to ignore evidence without giving any form of contradicting evidence or reason why the evidence provided is invalid.
I have said many times, to you and to others; it would take about an hour of your time to convince me I’m wrong. I don’t “believe beyond all doubt”; I follow the logical outcomes of the currently available data. If someone produced a data set that showed otherwise, I’m all for it. Currently, despite weeks of time and the means available, nobody has done so.
I care about the thread and the concept being represented. I don’t care about the opinion of a stupid person. These two things are not analogous.
The thread does the talking for anyone capable of rationality. For those on the cusp, sometimes it’s worth it to push a little, by showing why stupid people are stupid.
No, it isn’t. Human bias exists in everyone; smart people account for it as best they can with unbiased evidence. Stupid people ignore evidence to continue believing their world view.
To repeat again, because “selective bias” let’s people filter it out it seems; I’m aware of my bias and not married to the conclusions of the data. All someone needs to do is provide contradictory evidence. The longer we go without such evidence, the less likely it becomes.
It’s really simple. Go, do the experiment, note down your process so others can repeat it, and provide the data. It’s that simple.
If you have to insult, disrespect, and call people names to make your points, you’re doing it wrong.
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I don’t think it’s conspiracy theory I just think it’s bug this is blizzard everything’s bugged I seriously doubt every temper is bug free.
I don’t have to, I want to. If you don’t want to be called stupid, don’t act stupid.
Now debunk the gamblers fallacy clowns that think its more likely for you to roll what you want because another stat have rolled X times.
dropping this off, maybe it means something.
wooden joe crunched the numbers?
Maybe it’s me, but I have never been able to roll “Flame shield duration” on chest armor…
Pretty sure people assumed enchanter was weighted previously, the same way that affixes on gear are weighted. Different to tempering, however.
Well done OP.
Oh, the irony! Rofl!
1 Like
This word doesn’t mean what you think it means.
I haven’t demanded that you don’t call me anything; primarily because I don’t care what you call me.
It’s funny watching you play this little game with yourself - you think you’re scoring all these gotcha points that you just aren’t. Ever since I called your idiotic ideas about tempering and gambling exactly that; idiotic; I’ve been living rent free in that dome of yours.
2 Likes
This is my point. I can’t find any official Blizzard/Activision comment that Enchanting is or isn’t weighted. But you can find many posts where people claim “it’s not weighted, just get gud”.
We have proof from Wudijo’s latest vid that it is EXTREMELY weighted. SO why would they not do that to tempering?
for instance, for all we know, Blizzard coded the tempering to not read ANYTHING on your current build, and just weight things to roll better. For example. Let’s say i’m on a barb and looking to temper with my Weapon Recipes. This season, Bash was/is pretty “meta”, right? So when I go to pick “Furious Augment” in hopes to get my “bash cleaves” modification, I should have a 25% chance to hit it because there are 4 options, right?
LOLOLOLOL. Not only is that not even a close %, the other 3 rolls in the “Furious Augments” manual are laughable this season and are NEVER used.
HOTA size? lol
Upheaval size? lol
Kick Vulnerable duration?? you gotta be kidding me…that’s even an option?
You want to know how many times I bricked a weapon trying to just get “bash cleaves” 1 time?? Yet, I somehow have hit those other 3 MULTIPLE times IN A ROW. I think I made a post even in this thread challenging the OP’s stance on this because I saved up 3 2-handed maces to temper. one of them had a GA of Max life on it that I wanted, but the other 2 were decent upgrades to other stats as well. I bricked ALL THREE maces because it didn’t roll “bash cleaves” one time.
Now, to add to that, Blizzard COULD also easily see what build you are trying to go (i.e. when trying to temper it notes down you have bash in your skill bar). Then it weights to roll those common tempers at a lower rate so you spend resources. If I had the time, I’d love to see analysis on being one build, but tempering to a completely different build to see if you hit tempers better. Without proof, I can almost swear that when I was farming items to try a thorns build (I had a 2 GA razorplate drop), that all the gear I was farming from Helltide…when I would go back to temper them, I was tempering thorns modifications WAY easier as I was currently on a bash build. It was anecdotal, but it really seemed like I was hitting needed tempers WAY easier.
I don’t need any more proof than that to know it’s weighted. It feels EXACTLY like how it feels to temper a needed passive on an amulet.
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Same source of the maths, different UI. 
LOL right. Yeah, just keep responding and lashing out, not caring. Your arrogance is impressive, but the real brilliance is your lack of self-awareness.
That would be relevant… If this entire thread wasn’t based off the data and method aimed to literally disprove it.
You could have tested it for yourself in the time it took you to write this post.
Same source of maths? These affixes did not exist prior to tempering.
Again, the data is literally already there. 3 weeks this thread has been up, zero conflicting data provided. Tempering is not weighted.
so you are on the dev coding team? can you post your source? do you have access to the next few season(s) code? I understand you are probably under an NDA but maybe you can hint a little?
/edit
I understand that you probably can’t post the source to github or something like that as I’m sure their “RNG” is heavily patented but it would be neat to audit it.
I haven’t looked but their patent could probably be searched?