Totally offtopic but why for a 5 affix item, assuming every affix has the same % of getting the upgrade is 3 attempts average? i’d say its 5 but maybe I’m missing something, dont know. If you can explain I want to learn.
If your maths are correct and taking the 25,170 obducites you got as the final result… It’s not that high for a “secured X3” on average.
Every dungeon gives 2000 Obducite or more. Undercity with Obducite key gives exactly 2000 and both activities can be done in 3-5 min.
So… for a completely perfect tempered item you must spend what, 1 hour of farming, 2 if you have bad luck?, or half an hour if you are lucky?? I don’t see the problem, its a nice minor goal to get for 1 hour on average. To find a 2GA item with good stats you need much more. Damn, even for a good 1GA item in the slot you want you will need more than 1 hour on average. And the odds for getting the items, at least for the 2GA is extremely low as you already know. Here you are only playing vs a 1/5 chance (I don’t count the first 2 rounds to be honest)
You can think, “damn when I get home I will farm Obducites for 1 hour or 2 and get that X3 on this awesome item I got”, Also you maybe got some lucky drops or witch powers found while farming these Obducites, which makes it more fun.
If you have an even chance (1/5) to get the crit you want, then starting from nothing, it’s expected that you will average 1 success out of those first 5 attempts, and it will be on average on the (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5) / 5 = 3rd attempt.
There’s a lot of nested averages in my math though so I can’t guarantee I’m 100% correct on this.
Lines it up with occultist. Removes a feel bad. Allows for small improvements. Why is this a bad thing? Should you not be able to keep previous rolls on enchanting then? Do you want that changed to match tempering???
I might understand the logic between the “attempts” thing but I feel this way is not taking into account the “bad luck”, when you are getting the success after the 5th attempt (aka, bad luck). Which is why the 20% - represented by being success 1 of 5 tries is for. IE: For every time you get the success at 1st attempt in a 20% scenario… you will get a 10th attempt success in a different iteration of tries.
If you assume that at worst case scenario you will be successful at 5th attempt and best case at 1st attempt ye, you are right, But do you get what I mean, if you transform your maths to probabilty you are getting a 33% of success on a 20% base success, just because you assumed you can’t fail more than 5 times.
It’s interesting… last season you weren’t nearly so tolerant about having to grind for your goals. I guess it varies depending on whether the system is working in your favor?
how would pity even work in this system?
usually it’s an obvious hit or fail system where the chance to succeed goes up with each failure, but here: there is no obvious failure, and you always hit.
now obviously you want a specific stat to get hit. but how would the game know?
someone else might need a different stat.
or are you suggestion after 10 rerolls you just get to choose or what?
One way coming on top of my head right now…Assuming the best scenario for every build will be a X3 on the same stat you could choose a “Favorite stat”.
1st time you try will have a 20% chance on a 5 affix item. Every affix has the same chance.
Getting to the point where you have a X2 on that Stat is easy, so no pity system… But for the 8 to 12, when you get the X3. Every time you dont get the X3 it increases a +4%. Making it 24% the 2nd time and the other 4 affixes 19%. If you fail again in the 8 - 12 when having a X2… it goes to 28%, other affixes 18% and so on.
Ive proposed an elegant solution but it seems its not catching on. ITs so easy to fix masterworking.
Right now our system is Random. Random crits. Lets say on average it costs 90k Obdulcite to hit 3 crits on a unique. I am guessing on this number.
I propose a new system be added called FIXED system. This system you choose your crits but you spend whatever the average is on random system so 90k to do 3 crits on a unique as previous example. This system does not replace old system. IT gives more choices on how you masterwork.
Overall nothing changes in the long run except you just removed a feel bad from the game and now players can choose their path. Random progress to try and save resources or guaranteed fixed progress. No mixing and matching systems. You have to reset masterworking to choose a new path.
Well, and again, I’m great at math (but rusty) so I’m not certain that I got it 100% right, but that’s why it’s an average, and given the low overall probability you’d have to do 100s of attempts to see the average start to converge, minimum.
You have exactly the same chance to hit your crits on the 1st attempt that you do on the 125th: 1/125 (for 5 affix items.) You also still have a 124/125 chance of not getting it on attempt 125, because it’s never guaranteed.
There’s probably a more accurate (and I’d wager, more disheartening) average obtainable by taking cumulative chance to fail over time into account, but as was mentioned, you don’t always need to wait until the 12th hit to reset, and I’m really not sure how to math that out in such a way.
Maybe you are right and this things are above my knowledge but in my head if the item has 5 affix and the Masterwork upgrades one at random, thats a 20% chance of getting the one I want. So the average in 1000000000 attemps to get the one I want should be close to 1 of 5 attemps. “Simple” as that.
I cannot comprehend having an average of the base 20% average. Supposedly that 20% has already taken into account the tries that you succeed at 1-2-3-4-5 and the tries you succeed at 6-7-8-9-10, etc. Dunno. Seems I need to read some math books. But thanks for the “debate”, was quite interesting.
Blizzard needs to make a quest line that end with you being able to be rewarded with a specific tempering that can then be applied. Then the players can have what they want without the gamble, but they still have to work for it. And they should keep the random try should the player not want to quest for specifics. Tempering affixes could even be added to the under-city or citadel or new game content.
I spent 60k obducite the other day to just get a double hit on my kepeleke staff, no I do not agree with you that other people are embellishing. Last season I got 2 tripple crits but this season it feels impossible and it feels like Blizzard has definitely nerfed the odds this season.
100%
I’m having trouble double hitting this season. I’ve spent around 15k on average for double hits(some items required more some less). That’s all tier 1 and 2 resets, and lots and lots of resets(5 mil for each mind you).
I’ve triple hit some items sure, I spent around 50-60k to triple hit on my Cowl on the nameless which I ended up geting but prior to the triple hit I spent around 30k+ to double hit.
5 affix items are a nightmare, I triple hit only a few and one of them by sheer luck. But across 3 characters I may have 1 or 2 triple hits on 5 affix items and 3 or 4 on 4 affix items.
And that is exactly the reason why I quit playing this season. Haven’t realized when was the last time I posted in this thread but I played like an hour in the last 3 weeks. I can’t find the incentive to do so, for one, obduscite farm is boring and slow. Hordes are terrible. Running refinement on kurast is just torture. Having to do the exact same thing on loop isn’t my cup of tea. I wish they’ve given us slightly more challenging content with better rewards.
Season 5 hordes were awesome. They were challening and much more rewarding. For those who don’t know, most build sites and pro players had “hordes variant” of their OP builds. Survival was much harder. Blizzard always finds a way to regress. Hope they manage to turn it around at S8, but I don’t want to get my hopes up.
I also wish they released player numbers. Must be really really low.
