Unironically glazing a grifting streamer has to be one of the most embarrassing things anyone can do.
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Getting a Shako on the 10m th kill or in 10m kills? Which one is relevant?
On the 10 millionth. The universe isn’t counting how many times you roll the dice.
You just edited your post. I read your initial post, which was basically you said that the probability is the same.
You just realized that they are not and you are correct, they aren’t.
The difference is, one is relevant and one is not. You clowns are calculating the odds of NOT getting one after X rolls and the only thing in the universe that cares about that number is you.
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It’s relevant if you are helping someone one time and they want to get it.
It really isn’t. Numbers don’t care about your emotions. If you kill Duriel 500 times and get 7 Shakos, you have the same chances of getting a Shako on the next kill as the guy who killed Duriel 1000 times and got 0.
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Some twitch guy capnjanky recorded himself trying to convince his friend to ditch my group after I gave him steel for grigore. He got the shard and wanted to ditch.
00:35:00 of his twitch dot teevee recording /videos/1970694135
Shoutout to Marvin for ‘rather not’ stealing resources.
That was not the issue, my question was specific to your comment that I replied to.
Which one is the relevant one, “the probability of getting a Shako on the Xth try” or “getting a Shako after doing X tries”.
I cant get anyone to talk to me for Duriel runs. Its way worse than Destiny 2 LFG ever was.
You can buy them from anybody for 20M, might be cheaper now these are last week’s prices.
Again, the math is the math.
How you interpret and apply it is the issue.
Whether or not you find it relevant is not the issue.
I generally agree from a practical standpoint but there is a statistical side to it for those into it.
Either you have the unique or not at the end of the day. Its all or none. Probability is just a number relative to chance.
You don’t get it. This is not a matter of someone being upset because they didn’t get a Shako after 1000 kills and thinking their odds of getting one will somehow be better after 1000 more kills. It’s a random number pulled from a hat and put back into it.
Bag that isnt my point. Obviously. We are on two different wavelengths.
The probability is mathable period.
Mathable, yes. Relevant, no. I know what you’re saying. “If there’s a 50% chance to get an uber and you kill Duriel 10 times and still don’t get one, well, that’s reeeeeally unlikely to happen.”
The odds of not getting one after X rolls is not relevant to the odds of getting one on any roll. The chance is (2%) and it’ll always be 2% no matter how many times you roll the dice.
There may be a 0.00000001% chance of not getting an uber after 10,000,000 kills but what are you going to do with that number other than say “oh man, I got really bad luck.”
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So i get it.
This is an extreme example but i have health care industry clients.
We always stress cancer patients 5 year probable survival rate isnt necessarily relevant because a person is not a percentage. You are either alive or passed on.
This is no different. You either have it or dont. The number at the end of the day is relative to intepretation and application.
So…I guess the west resorts to petty theft and the east resorts to mass duping operations. Everyone has their own ways of coping with low uber drop rates and trying to get more mats. 
@Phatty, if you have health care industry clients, then you of all people should be able to understand even highly educated people are not ‘mathable’. 
It seems as though some people think the more you play the better the odds of winning when the only factor that carries over is the participation in the game because to even be able to win you must play and this is how gambling and video games walk a very thin legal line.
Thats the thing.
I guess people are assuming its a shoulda woulda coulda type of statement.
But its not necesarily the case.
There is no guarentee. This is why doubling a bet every time you loose while appears to make sense, every play is still the same odds.
Your next unique run will always be 2 percent.
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Nope, because I don’t follow streamers. Personally, if you need assists, or want to assist others, put a call out in the forums. Sure we have a mixed bag of players, but you also have a better chance of meeting someone who’s also far less busy/ more reliable.
I don’t know rob, so I won’t be slagging on the bloke, but at the end of the day, handing mats to anyone, always carry’s risks. Best that each person has their own stash of mats and each knows what the limits are (ie- run for a run).