Odds of legendary gem drop in elder rift

[MicroRNA-1507]

If someone adds 10 legendary crests to a single elder rift, how many legendary gems drop on average/approximately?

Edit: Answered. It would be 10.

[Skelos-2150]

It may depend on the tap tap history of the player.

[MicroRNA-1507]

I really, really do not want to watch hours of Quin’s twitch stream to figure out a reasonable estimate.

[Shadout-2849]

I thought it was always 1 guaranteed gem per crest?

@Skelos-2150

It may depend on the tap tap history of the player.

Hah. I wouldnt be surprised about that.
On the other hand, it would make more sense, in a predatory strategy, to lower the droprate for the super whales than reward them. After all they have already proven they will pay more.

[MicroRNA-1507]

@Shadout-2849

I thought it was always 1 guaranteed gem per crest?

I checked quickly. I suspect that you are right.

[Bodach-1471]

I’m curious because I may have missed it. Did they specifically say that this game does not have loot boxes? When elder rifts and legendary crests are just a 3-minute loot boxes?

[MicroRNA-1507]

@Bodach-1471

When elder rifts and legendary crests are just a 3-minute loot boxes?

The elder rifts act as an intermediate activity so that it is not a direct loot box.

[Tandem-1349]

I think the metric you want is drop odds of X rank gem from leg crest. Leg crest guarantees a leg gem.

[MicroRNA-1507]

My question was answered. It seems to be 1 legendary crest is 1 legendary gem at the end of the elder rift.

The odds of a 5 star has been reported to be 1 in 2000.

[Tandem-1349]

@MicroRNA-1507

The odds of a 5 star has been reported to be 1 in 2000.

Literal casino odds lmao.

[StarElven-1630]

@MicroRNA-1507

The odds of a 5 star has been reported to be 1 in 2000.

The odds of getting the exact gem you want however are far, far lower…

[MicroRNA-1507]

Yeah. I think there are 16 legendary gems. So if looking for a specific one at 5 stars, it is 1 in 32,000.

@MicroRNA-1507

I think that I have a decent estimate based on these assumptions.

1. The cash equivalent of a legendary crest is $2.50
2. One legendary crest results in one legendary gem drop at the end of the elder rift.
3. The odds of a 5 star gem is 1 in 2000.
4. Each legendary gem is weighted equally.
5. There are 16 legendary gems so the odds of a getting a bloodstar gem is 1 in 16.

Therefore, the odds of not getting at least one 5 star bloodstar gem per each kegendary crest is = 1 - (1/32,000)

The odds of not getting at least one 5 star bloodstar gem = [1-(1/32,000)]^n where n is the number of legendary crests used.

So, there is a 10% chance that one would not get a single 5 star blood star gem after 73,681 legendary crest purchased = $184,202.50

So I also calculated the odds of Quin69 luck. He did not get any 5 star legendary gems at all (the odds per legendary crest of that happening is 1999/2000. He spent $10.3K. One would expect to spend that amount of money and ~13%of the time to get no 5 star legendary gem. So his luck was bad but still expected ~13% of the time.

[Meteorblade-2266]

@MicroRNA-1507

elder rifts act as an intermediate activity so that it is not a direct loot box

It’s still a loot box, albeit one that takes a few minutes to open.

Also, did you notice that there are legendary crests (obtained by in-game activity) and eternal legendary crests (obtained by orbs, which require money to buy)? They’re deliberately designed to look the same and, indeed, the interface for inserting crests into an Elder Rift only has slots for the two types, i.e. standard crest and legendary crest. However, they are very different. Legendary crests result in you getting a bound legendary gem at the end of the rift, eternal legendary crests result in you getting an unbound legendary gem at the end of the rift, which could be sold on the in-game Marketplace.

[MicroRNA-1507]

@Meteorblade-2266

@MicroRNA-1507

elder rifts act as an intermediate activity so that it is not a direct loot box

It’s still a loot box, albeit one that takes a few minutes to open.

Agreed, however, I think that Blizzard could argue that clearing the elder rifts counts as a game of skill to avoid some loot box rules.

@Meteorblade-2266

Also, did you notice that there are legendary crests (obtained by in-game activity) and eternal legendary crests (obtained by orbs, which require money to buy)? They’re deliberately designed to look the same and, indeed, the interface for inserting crests into an Elder Rift only has slots for the two types, i.e. standard crest and legendary crest. However, they are very different. Legendary crests result in you getting a bound legendary gem at the end of the rift, eternal legendary crests result in you getting an unbound legendary gem at the end of the rift, which could be sold on the in-game Marketplace

I saw that too. Just more legerdemain on Blizzard’s part.

[MorriganGrey-1195]

@MicroRNA-1507

Agreed, however, I think that Blizzard could argue that clearing the elder rifts counts as a game of skill to avoid some loot box rules.

I’ve seen this arugument. It also means the purchase gives a modicum of XP.

[ShadowAegis-1537]

@MicroRNA-1507

My question was answered. It seems to be 1 legendary crest is 1 legendary gem at the end of the elder rift.

The odds of a 5 star has been reported to be 1 in 2000.

That 1 in 2000 is for a five out of five star legendary gem to drop. So the pity counter might give you a five star legendary gem. But instead of it being a five out of five it is likely to be a 2, 3, or if lucky a four out of five star legendary gem. So even the whales are punished because they are not likely to see a five out of five star legendary gem either. Only the richest and luckiest will see one. The problem is that you need multiple copies of those gems to be able to level them up.