Not a bug my behind

im sorry you can call this bad RNG all you want. 60 hours of gameplay and the only primal i got was the gr70 one. i would love for somebody to look at my account and see why. but obviously i just have bad RNG. i would believe this if i only played 15-20 hours. ya know, like i only do one or two gr’s a night or something. i can buy that apple. but as much as i have played. something is wrong here. you say its tied to the blood shard cap, which i have rasied numerous times thinking it will “reset” whatever is broke. i did die and loose the toon i did my first gr70 on very shortly after completing it. i have convinced myself it has something to do with this. or really, i am seriously the unluckiest diablo3 player on the entire planet. who was it, wudijo or something. guy does some serious spreadsheet stuff on his youtube. your supposed to get one every 2 hours. i will give myself 4 hours because i spend more time in town going thru stuff then he does. so that would be 15 in 60 hours if im not mistaken. i would be happy with 5.

Would you provide a link to your source of information please?

Thank you.

Don’t waste your time worrying about primals. 90% of them are trash, insta-salvage junk. And the 10% that are usable are only fractionally better than a well-rolled ancient in the same gear slot.

On average, 1 in 400 legendary items will be primal. The more efficiently you farm, the more legendaries per hour you’ll get, and the more primals you’ll get, but, sometimes you’ll go 2000 or more legendaries between primals, other times you’ll get 5 in the space of 100 drops. It’s RNG. I read somewhere that sacrificing your first-born child to Diablo guarantees you’ll get more primals, so I tried it, and for the first week after I did get primals on every run, but they were all Blackthornes.

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Please provide where you heard this information. AFAIK, the only thing primals are tied to is completing a GR70 solo.

This is bad RNG.

You just have bad RNG.

That figure will be entirely based on how many legendaries per hour you’re obtaining. Primals are, on average, 1 in 400 legendaries. So, to get one every 2 hours (on average) you’d need to obtain 200 legendaries per hour. The maximum number of legendaries a GR guardian can drop occurs at a minimum of GR90 and is 12. So, 400 in 2 hours is 200 per hour. 200 / 12 = 16.666 GR90+ per hour. That’s a rate of one GR90+ per 3 minutes 36 seconds. Are you doing GRs that high and that efficiently?

How many ancient legendaries have dropped for you? In general, you expect 1 primal for every 40 or so ancients. Roughly 8% of the time, you will go 1,000 total legendary drops without a primal.

This is not true. There was a pity timer of 2 hours that was introduced to increase legendary drop rate, but this does not mean a primal drops every 2 hours. The primal drop rate is roughly 1 in 400 legendaries after clearing GR70 solo.

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This ^^^

The bad luck protection was for base Legendary items, not Primals. Further, it did not magically drop a Legendary at the 2 hour mark. It meant that if you got no Legendary items at all then the Legendary Drop rate would tick up increasing chances until eventually you get a Legendary. At that point it resets.

It has nothing to do with Primals. Those are VERY rare and your issues are RNG.

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Here’s the thing, Ancients and Primals are not measured by time. They are measured by Legendries. So, while I agree with you on the RNG being really broken, your explanation/prof isn’t useful.

If you are going to prove that the RNG is broken, then you need to keep track of the hard numbers. You need to keep track of which items dropped and their stats. For instance, 1 in 10 Legendary items are supposed to be Ancient, so 4 to 16 Ancients out of 100 Legendries is perfectly normal. 8 Ancients out of 200 Legendries is unusual, and only a little unexpected if it only happens once. In fact, it’s normal to get 12 to 28 Ancients out of every 200 Legendries when dealing with a large player base. Now, the expected number of Ancients to get out of every 200 Legendries is 17 to 23, but 12 to 28 is normal.

16 Ancients out of 400 Legendries is possible. With the number of players we’ve got, it’s bound to happen every now and then. But, that shouldn’t be happening because it creates feelings of resentment in the player base.

In order to have enough data to show that the RNG for Primals might be broken (this isn’t enough to prove that is), you are going to need to document 8,000 consecutive Legendry drops. I’m not saying that 8,000 consecutive item drops need to be Legendry. I am saying that you are going to need to document every Legendry item that drops for you until you reach 8,000. Now, to be 100% clear, Set Items, Ancient Items, Primal Items, and Primal Set Items, count as Legendry Items because they are a type of Legendry Item (when it comes to doing and checking the math).

I agree with you on the RNG being broken. I have a suspicion that the developers are using the same RNG object for multiple things instead of using separate RNGs. The reason I suspect that they are reusing the same RNG object is because it would explain some of the deviations in RNG rolls that I see when spending blood shards between what is expected and what is going on. Falling out of the expected range isn’t unusual because the expected range is only two-thirds of the time. To me, it feels like I’m outside the expected range more often than not, every time I check the math. But, I don’t check the math often enough to be sure of this, because, well, 8,000 consecutive Legendry items is a lot to keep track of and I can’t be bothered to do so.

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So, you make a long post about how you need to have an extensive data set to perform analysis on so that you can draw objective conclusions based upon it, but you’ve already come to the conclusion that it’s broken and you’ve based that on your subjective feelings that it might be? You’re trying to get the facts and figures to match your conclusions rather than drawing your conclusions from the facts and figures.

If the evidence doesn’t support your hypothesis, you’re supposed to change your hypothesis to match the evidence, not the other way around.

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Yeah, I should have been a bit more clear.

I agree with them in that I think that the way the RNG is being used, is causing results that are broken. But, thinking that something is broken is not the same as it being broken. I know that, but I should have clarified it.

Also, me thinking that it is broken isn’t based purely on a feeling. I did mention that I do check the math from time to time. I’ve checked the math quite a few times over the years. I just didn’t include the details on that because, I never recorded my results. There are plenty of times when I’m playing where I see something that is odd, and I end up doing the math. There have been times when that odd thing was followed by another odd thing, which was then followed by another odd thing, and each of those odd things was more than 2 standard divs from normal.

It’s not perfect, but when you see three back to back events with those probabilities, it does make one wonder about how the developers are going about getting their RNG values.

But, to actually prove it; I’ve through about what it would take to do that. I concluded that it wasn’t worth my time.

There was a website that tracked the number of regular, ancient, and primal ancient legendaries. Dependent on the day, the number of total legendaries tracked ranges from hundreds of thousands to millions per each day. Overall, I suspect that this site has cataloged a billion legendary drops to date.

Primal ancient legendaries are roughly 0.23% of total legendary drops.

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