Every cache should drop the plan unless the patch notes says so. And it hasnt so its a bug. If the situation has changed they have to let us know that
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Itâs not bugged. I got Bornâs plans about three days after getting my other plans. I doubt you opened 200 caches this season without getting plans. Highly doubtful you did that.
As I have previously statedâŚ
This season, I got all three plans in 5 caches.
Non-season, I got all three plans in 30 caches.
However, if you bothered to do a cursory search of the Bug Report forum youâd find other posters that have opened huge numbers of caches and still not received the plans. I used 200 as a benchmark for statistical analysis purely because that was the highest number of caches claimed in those posts.
Three and a half weeks into a three month season and there are still people that donât have gotten the plans yet. Do you think thatâs working as intended, i.e. they canât have their optimal builds because a pattern refuses to drop?
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So, how about this post todayâŚ
Iâve got the level 70 plan. Took a long time to get. So as you can see, it is dropping.
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For some, it isnât dropping, at least on a specific character. Iâm not sure if itâs just a bug in the seed code or a bug in the actual drop code, but when it refuses to drop on one character, but immediately drops on a new character opening caches the first (bugged) character obtained and put into the stash, that indicates a malfunctioning seed.
Edit: Assuming the seed is not malfunctioning, it appears that certain values result in a drop chance that is extremely close to zero. Weâve got people not getting the drops this far into the season with repeated bounty set runs, which assuming the seed resulted in a non-zero drop chance, puts the actually drop chance at or below the spawn chance for Princess Lilian to drop the Cosmic Wings in Whimsydale. Thatâs broken.
I went about 130 caches in before I got my Captain Crinsomâs plans this season. For solo thatâs a bit of a long time to wait to get a build going.
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Theyâre no assumption at all. There is no bug. Itâs rng. Rng is random. Doesnât matter how many times you do it, youâre not guaranteed to get the drop you want. Your canât try to calculate chances based on multiple runs. Each run is itâs own event. Just keep running. Itâll drop eventually, or not.
Actually, you can calculate it, as Meteorblade has shown. His calculations donât tell you when youâre guaranteed to get it (thatâs the RNG part), but do show the likelihood of having failed to get it after X times. That failure rate decreases as more runs accumulate. Each run may be independent, but statistically failure rates decline the more you run.
The impetus here is the drop chance that any seed in use creates. Itâs possible that the seedâs lower bound value is too low, causing the plans to essentially never drop. Thatâs what needs to be looked into. That part is easily demonstrated by the âbrokenâ character gathering caches and a brand new character opening those caches and instantly getting the plans.
If it isnât a seed issue, or at least only partially a seed issue, then the only other explanation is that the drop chance declines after each cache is opened. Thatâs a fair stretch as Iâve never seen that happen before, but itâs within the realm of possibility if something was incorrectly coded or had a bug in the code.
Toss a coin once.
Chance of all results being heads is 1/2.
Toss a coin 10 times.
Chance of all results being heads is 1/1024.
Toss a coin 50 times.
Chance of all results being heads is 1/1,125,899,906,842,624.
Now imagine that you need the coin to land on tails to get the plan.
Except"the plans never drop" is wrong. They do drop, Iâm proof of that. My drop chance is the same as yours.
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I donât need to, it already landed on tails for me.
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Unfortunately both of these are logical fallacies. Just because you got yours doesnât mean others have or will. Thatâs the problem.
Youâre right, they can be victims of rng, but what it does mean is that the plans do in fact drop.
We have absolutely no way of knowing if there is some kind of bug that in some cases makes it less likely for some players to get the plans or not. In the past there have been plenty of strange bugs only affecting some players - like losing legendary gems when using the armory and some season journey achievements not registering for some players and other stuff.
I just have to throw this out there in the void. Why only change how one or two plans drop at all? To me, itâs idiotic to affect a couple of plans just because they were changed recently. Why didnât they change how legendary gems drop for example? They fall till you have them all⌠plans used to do this⌠It is a move that really didnât make sense
Just saying.
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It did indeed take me several full bounty runs to get the CC plans âŚ
Think Blizz puts this RNG in the game to frustrate more than reward ⌠I liken this to all the 90% / 80% gem upgrade fails or reforge to ancients / primals or re-rolling for better stats ⌠where probability seems skewed in favor of more grinding / retrying rather than less to squeeze more game-play out of players.
RNG + RNG = rarity = more grind = frustration or reward ⌠where frustration factor needs to cap to warrant a reward factor 
Well, here we are again. I decided to raise up a Wizard on one of my Season Journeys, and lo and behold, the Crimson plans will not drop.
I did nothing but T6 2-man Bounties 1-70 (powerleveled myself), T10 and T13 3-man Bounties up to P350, and all plans have completely quit dropping. I havenât had a single plan for anything drop in the last 15 Bounty runs completed (turned in).
I have every crafting plan except for Crimson, I have every Jewel-crafting plan, and in 15 Bounty caches at T6, T10 and T13 (I donât remember the distribution) - thatâs 75 individual Bounties - not a single additional plan has dropped.
Blue, donât you dare tell me this is working as intended. Itâs bugged and you know it, you damn well better report it.
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I have 6 accounts. A couple of them got lucky and the plans dropped after a few Bounties. A couple accounts still donât have the plans even after completing Guardian and the entire Season Journey. The one I am pissed about now is this one:
https://us.diablo3.com/en/profile/StoneBold-1179/hero/117632492
Thatâs why she is still wearing Cainâs.
Right now I am running 3 accounts in one game: Two have completed Guardian and have the plans. One of those I recently killed along with my Wizard (a bad Uber run), so itâs a fresh level 70 that I just power-leveled up, and the Wiz, also a fresh 70 that I power-leveled up, who still doesnât have the plan, and I just did another 3-man Bounty at T13 and no plan dropped for this Wiz.