Guess which item was last in line?

You clearly have vendetta problems against multiple people. You’re continuously going off on a tangent. I now remember why I blocked you in the first place. I should have checked to make sure it didn’t expire. I won’t make that mistake this time.

Good luck on… whatever it is you think you’re trying to accomplish here.

When the OP’s claims were disagreed with…

  • You said people were frauds
  • You said people were pretending to be smart
  • You said people were using faulty maths and/or plagiarising formulae
  • You said the OP was not making a feelings-based thread despite one of his posts literally saying it was about how he felt, not about the maths

What I have a problem with is insults and lies.

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Ahhh, I’ve missed these StoneAge anecdotes.

Thanks for the laugh amigo.

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Only if they pointed it out after you ordered and consumed a £250 lunch! :smiley:


Okay MB, I have two more accounts to do the Season Journey with this Season. Naturally in real life I’m not going to get 5000 drops of one item, so my claim is going to be that the Ancient versions of this item are going to roll more poorly with an average consistency higher than that of normal items.

Lately I’ve been tending to play a Wizard as well as a Demon Hunter, but I do most general farming with the DH GoD build, just because it’s fast. So probably choose a Demon Hunter item.

Some Commentary
I only like one build for the Wizard, and that’s the Hydra, and I’ve been resisting ranting about that set, because this game is absolutely refusing to drop anything Ancient except for three sets of shoulders, and only after I completed my set on my own, and long since finished the Season Journey, did the game ever drop even a single piece for the set. I had to use the DH to collect ridiculous amounts of materials so that I could craft my set pieces, none of which have been Ancient, and I have five full sets now.

I did get lucky with an Ancient Squirt’s drop, but I had to re-forge the Fragment of Destiny to Ancient, because aside from my Primal Soul-O only one other primal item has dropped (Jang’s Envelopment) so I haven’t been able to craft any primal weapon this Season, and like I said, I finished the Season Journey long ago, and I’m at P875. Although I have been very pleased with the Winter’s Flurry offhand drops; only two in the 130s, four at 142 and above, with one of those (equipped) at 150%.

I’ll probably abandon this account shortly, as soon as I get all my gems to 100. Or as soon as my character dies to my next disconnect.

Anyway, let’s pick a DH item and I’ll track it.

P.S. This game! The next Wiz GR I did after writing this dropped me an Ancient Hydra hat. Now, I don’t use that item for this build, but it’s the first of only four Ancient items that wasn’t shoulders.

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I want to understand what you mean by this in more formal terms.

For DML, the range of multishot damage is 150%-200%. The average should be 175%.

What average roll on ancients do you want to conclude that ancients roll worse? 170%? 165%?

Sometimes it feels that the game trolls us more than the forum :laughing:
Best of luck in your gaming :+1:

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It wasn’t me i tell you!

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By “this item” I take it you mean the Dead Man’s Legacy quiver?

If so, one player, even with multiple accounts isn’t likely to get enough of these to provide a statistically valid population to calculate the Expected Value…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

But, just for the sake of interest, record these things…

  1. The number of non-ancient DMLs you obtain
  2. The lowest value of %Multishot on these
  3. The highest value of %Multishot on these
  4. The average value of %Multishot on these
  5. The number of ancient DMLs you obtain
  6. The lowest value of %Multishot on these
  7. The highest value of %Multishot on these
  8. The average value of %Multishot on these

Obviously, even if you got 100 of these, that’s going to be around 90 non-ancient and 10 ancient, so the variance in a sample as small as 10 could be wildly inaccurate but go ahead.

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My observed behavior on Ancient items over the last 12 years is that the Legendary power tends to roll in the lower range of what’s available on a consistent basis. My theoretical reason for this is that because Ancient items are generally stronger overall, Blizzard weighted the Legendary power to roll in the lower range because they don’t want anything to be “too powerful.” Their stance on this is amply illustrated with the stupid Movement Speed nerf last season.

By contrast, you can get really good normal Legendary versions of the item all day long. Despite the quantity variation, it just seems to me that the normal ones tend to roll a little better than Ancient ones.

No, I meant just pick an item. If you want to pick the DML since we’ve been talking about it, then sure.

What you said is exactly my point. Because we don’t get thousands of these things, we can’t choose the one that averages towards the high end, or the expected value, we have to use what drops. And what usually drops is crap. I’m leveling up my next DH right now. I will be using level 70 gear shortly, but when I actually get to level 70, I’ll start keeping track of the results. I might pick a second item for comparison. An Ancient Fortress Ballista is notoriously difficult to get a 3.0% roll on, and I’ll actually use that in the build, so I’ll keep track of that as well.

I have played D3 since its release. That is not my observation. I see roughly what one expects due to RNG.

That is a hypothesis/speculation. The nerf to moveement speed is irrelevant to your speculation on ancient item roll ranges.

I strongly suspect the you have perception bias. If a DML or Fortress Ballista drops and it is non-ancient, then it is not very memorable since you know that you will find many more.

Now an.ancient drops of one of the coveted items. The stakes are much higher. It may roll well, average, or poorly due to RNG. You recall the badly rolled ancients for coveted items since you know the rarity of being that item and ancient.

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Less than two weeks left for what?

That must be a personal issue. Blizzard has said nothing about Season End, PTR, or next Season Start.

Nope. Look at the Ancient FB on this character:

2.6% and this is obviously the best Ancient I found during that Season Journey, or I would be using that one. Now I have 2 normal ones at 3%, one at 2.9, and one at 2.6. I throw out everything below 2.5, and guess which ones are the first to go? That’s right, all the Ancient ones.

I have “proof” that non ancient items have a tendency to drop with lower than max value of the legendary power.
In fact both ancient and non ancient items have this tendency.

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How many non-ancients total drpped? You stated that 4 were 2.6 and above. That suggests that you had about 10 or so drop.

How many ancients in total dropped? If there was only 10 or so non-ancients, I would only anticipate 1-2 ancients.

For clarity, when you say you throw out everything below 2.5, does that include 2.5 itself? Grammatically, it means 2.5 is kept.

If you throw out everything below 2.5, that means you throw out on average 45% (i.e. 5/11) and keep 55%. If you throw out 2.5 and below, you throw out 55%.

In your example, you only kept 4 non-ancients so probability wise, we are not dealing with lots of drops.

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Just because you play many different accounts doesn’t warrant your sample size would be big enough for consistency. If you have 1% chance for a combination of affixes to be really good, then by the loot rates it also has a 9 out of 10 chance of occurring in the non-Ancient loot types. For you to come across a godlike item at Ancient quality, you have to run across the same item a thousand times. What you are doing is claiming the way you “feel” being rightful, and that is oddly out of concept for possibilities.

By the way, thinking affixes have their own weights and potentials in the itemization, 1% is just a rough but optimistic estimation. Some very rare found affixes on weapons, armor and jewelry could have very low weight of 2% for appearance while some has high as 5-8% or more.
Think of the Wheel of Fortune table, similar of that contest show; the rarest affixes are those really high reward slices with the width of a tea spoon, while others are scaled between a soda can and beer keg. From an outlier observer, it looks like you’re complaining about losing as if you meant to win the whole pot with every tenth spin. For the record, that’s never have been the case, no matter what you may have felt; the wheel is not rigged and it just does what it supposed to do.

While this number can vary by slot or group of affixes; for the sake of example, let’s say there are 14 affixes available after guaranteed affixes allocated in primaries. That still does not mean each affix have an equal chance to roll. If you desire an affix between a pool of 14 affixes, not each of them will have 1/14th chance to roll. For very unique affixes (ie. guaranteed elemental damage on some items) you may conclude that those has equal chance of rolling, but for standard affixes that’s not the case.

For example; bleed chance, reduced damage from elites, procs of crowd control chance and such, are really low weight affixes and hard to land those at the normal items, let along on an Ancient grade. Before you conclude that you have farmed enough, do note if you have ever saw either of these low weight affixes for a substantial amount of evidence to claim that game works against you. If you have never seen any of the desired items with an affix with very low odds for rolling, why do you even presume you have seen everything?
Again, game does not work against you; although, game just not be keen on rewarding you right away.

Each affix group, primary and secondary, will have limited amount of remaining possibilities when you nail down the tailored affixes/ attributes such as main stat, damage or defense. Yet that has no impact on each affix’ weight on the system. When you have 30+ available Primary affixes, and 2-3 of them already appearing on the item due it being tailored for your class, combination of remaining ones only become a matter of luck, times their weight.

From the sound of it, you were just split between many accounts, many classes and never accumulate a large enough bulk to compare with given statistics at once. When that’s where you lack, just use Kanai’s Cube to reforge, upgrade rare items or at least gamble from Kadala to up the numbers. First, show some effort, then decide if odds were stacked against you.
To say the least, the general amount of Legendary items in Diablo 3 can be largely substituted, if not, can be replaced via Cube slots or other means. There’s almost always another item which can grant you enough survival or comparable damage output. For the better or the worse, you always have an option to adapt or change your approach as well.

Else at the worst case scenario you just don’t understand math or what pseudo-random means. You will have bad luck, although adapting and having an alternate plan for progress can be part of the game as well. This is still not an excuse to open seemingly non-ending stream of threads without any barging on your opinions.

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OMG! Stone is on to something. This Fortress Ballista just dropped with 3%. In the screenshot it is compared to the best ancient that I have got this season which is 2.7%.
The one I am using is crafted in the the cube and is sitting in the inventory.
:grin:

https://imgur.com/a/EmFSWEG

PS. A couple of runs later I got an ancient one with good stats and with 2.9%… :thinking:

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I would wear a tinfoil hat if it were to not smear my head with popcorn grease.

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Recycling your JiffyPop container?

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In my experience, that claim is factual. But then it could be said of every item in the game. Naturally, there are a few outliers, those that roll with max value, and those can be either Legendary or Ancient, but that claim has nothing to do with mine, which is that the average value of the Legendary power of Ancient items is consistently less than the average value of the Legendary power of normal items.

I don’t know, I didn’t keep good track. Probably 15 or so Legendary ones, most hovering around 2.1-2.3%, and about five Ancients, only one of which went over 2.3%.

Exactly part of my point. I don’t care what the statistical average looks like, I care about the instant results of what drops. And I’m telling you, Ancient items drop like cra[quote=“naksiloth-1354, post:56, topic:63367”]
First, show some effort, then decide if odds were stacked against you.
[/quote]

if you only knew how many thousands of items I have re-forged, upgraded from rare, and gambled, you wouldn’t suggest I show any effort. I’ve exerted plenty.

Once I went through an entire Season with a Multishot DH using a Windforce bow, because no method available in the game yielded me a single Yangs. But that’s not my point. how many Legendary Yang’s have you found with 196%, 200%, 185% to MS, while almost every Legendary one the drops does outstanding damage, but has 153% or 167% MS.

This kind of thing happens so often, that it prompted my conclusion based on my consistent observations. and again I don’t care about the math and the statistics and what I should be able to expect if I collect 5000 of these things, I want to know why they have the propensity to roll as they do as often as they do. Naturally no one can say, but as I’ve said my theory is that knowing these Ancient items are so strong in other areas, Blizzard purposely weighted the median range of the Legendary power roll in the lower end of the scale.

P.S. So I just picked up an Ancient Hunter’s Wrath belt, with a 197% (out of 200%) Legendary Power. LOL…grrr…this damn game… :crazy_face:

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