If they make next Blizzcon during next February this is 9 months from now aka a lot bigger period for D4 testing than we here in this thread expect.
If however they aim to release D4 in Q1 2022 aligning with our testing time prediction then Blizzcon has to appear as usual - in November this year.
Another possibility would be to make longer 10-12 months testing, but that looks like an overkill to me. That would align well with Blizzcon in 02.2022 and a possible release in June-July 2022.
If you refrain from making predictions and assumptions you will not be disappointed.
Blizzard will run on it’s own schedule and not on what some players think it should be.
I think they won’t do a testing lasting more than 9 months. That’s insane in itself. You aren’t testing the NASA spaceship engine for 9 months straight.
This then leads to:
1] Blizzcon in November this year
2] Just a small testing on PS right now
But if it’s 2] why the whole 44 GB? That’s the thing bothering me from start… Something is fishy here.
F&F Beta started in september. Not alpha.
Well, maybe D4 will have an Early Access?
It would be a first in series, but by the results this model is having im gaming industry, I wouldn’t be surprised (and probably would be looking forward for it).
44 GB for F&F doesn’t sound logical. It looks like they are entering next stage of testing. From there on 7-8 months seems perfectly reasonable.
Alpha is basically mostly use for internal testing. Although some games have alphas where outsiders test, more often they are called betas by Blizzard. The first bit of outside testing for D3 was the F&F in Sept 2011. They may have called internal testing alpha or not.
I have been part of many alpha testing for Blizzard where publically they call it beta when the server/code says alpha and visa versa. They use the terms interchangeably. So it really doesn’t matter. That fact is it was in outside testing for 8 months give or take a couple of weeks.
D4 would currently be in alpha testing eternally since at least summer if 2020. I doubt it will need 1 year of “beta” testing.
Well, both D:I and D2R have had external tests which they described as alphas. So hard to say. And D:I is on track to have release 1 year after its first external tests.
But I agree it doesn’t matter what they call it.
Nor does it matter much for these news either. It could be for internal testing.
They are testing their games for 5+ years. At least according to themselves.
We have already been told of internal tests of early models of specific areas in the game. That was nearly a year ago.
I am talking about external testing outside of F&F. 9 months for that is an overkill especially as you said it had already been tested for 5+ years.
They also have to announce Blizzcon this month if on usual schedule. If they don’t, it would look like the testing is even in a more advanced period since they would kind of base the Blizzcon start date on how the testing is going. We’ll see what happens in the next weeks.
I’d say it’s very interesting time to be a Diablo 4 fan right now with these great news now and the quarterly update coming next month.
Agreed, they won’t have 9 months of public beta.
As for Blizzcon I guess they would like to know which covid restrictions might remain in place for the rest of the year. Could probably delay the announcement compared to normal years.
Don’t forget this too:
“2022 will be a great year for Blizzard.”
© Activision Blizz chief operating officer Daniel Alegre, Feb.21.
There will be still some restrictions for sure sadly so the usual attendance is out of the question I think. Maybe 30% at maximum at same space, but let’s hope for the best.
Yeah. 2022 seems like cemented at this point, especially with these news.
If I was a gambler (which I am) I’d say 65% on 2H 2022, and 30% on 2023.
(3% on 2024, 1.9% on being cancelled and repurposed into a Battle Royale. 0.1% on Tencent buying ATVI turning them into a cosmetic MTX farm for GGG)
No, you are not or you are just making random estimations.
A gambler doesn’t?
These are top of the line predictions though! And I dont even need time travel cheats to pull them off.
Based on the timing of Blizzcon, I think it’s reasonable to assume that D4 wouldn’t be out before late 2022.
If they had released the 5th class during Blizzcon then we could expect it earlier however the fact they didn’t announce class 5 means that they are expecting to have another Blizzcon before release.
Even though they likely don’t know when the next Blizzcon will be right now, they probably assumed it would be at earliest Feb 2022.
I expect that if Feb 22 ends up being the Blizzcon date then we’d get a release date between Summer 2022 - Summer 2023.
A November Blizzcon 2022 might indicate a May 2023 release which is what I personally expect.
I hope it comes out quicker but based on everything I’ve seen I think Spring 2023.
We can always get a release date, Blizzcon is not needed for that.
But Blizzcon will reveal the 5th class and that happens before launch.
Three possibilities regarding Blizzcon:
1] This November - game coming Q1/Q2 2022
2] Feb 2022 - game coming Q2/Q3 2022
3] Nov 2022 - game coming Q4 2022
I can’t see how the game gets delayed to 2023 when it’s basically ready. 2023 is year and a half from now at minimum. That’s insane amount of time for a game that was already 6 years in production. Insane.
Yeah it’s true that we can get a release date at any time really but I think the plan would have been based on a Blizzcon announcement for that date so even if said Blizzcon didn’t go ahead the time it was supposed to go ahead might give an indicator.
In theory we could argue that the intended timeline was:
Nov BC 2020 ->Rogue
Nov BC 2021 ->Class 5 + Release Announcement
Spring-Summer 2022 → Game Launch
If that was the case then it’s fairly reasonable to assume they could delay class 5 to 2022 Feb Blizzcon.
I am fairly certain we are not getting a November 2021 Blizzcon. There is too much travel uncertainty and usually Blizzcon is announced well in advanced so that people can organise travel. If they were going to do another Blizzconline, I think it would be again in Febuary.
I’m still not convinced it’s that far along but I will be happy to be wrong about that! I hope you are right.
Does it means that Blizzard will go away from Activision like Bunjee does? 
I think that launching of service in a second half of 22 the earliest of possibilities.
If Blizzard wanted to be independent they would have gone that route long before the Merger.